* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952024 09/15/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 40 41 37 34 29 24 20 26 26 26 23 28 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 40 34 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 27 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 50 41 32 30 27 17 18 13 27 22 32 28 24 36 43 24 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 0 3 -2 -2 -4 -6 -4 -4 0 -5 -10 -13 8 8 SHEAR DIR 227 239 233 230 241 251 242 267 269 268 261 277 315 321 297 254 211 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.5 25.9 25.2 25.2 24.8 23.2 23.4 25.1 25.6 19.9 18.5 11.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 151 145 144 115 108 108 103 90 91 106 111 80 80 70 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 -54.5 -55.2 -56.1 -56.2 -56.3 -55.9 -55.4 -55.0 -55.3 -56.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 5 2 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 55 56 52 52 51 50 48 47 48 54 54 49 45 47 50 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 16 17 18 16 11 8 6 5 3 9 13 15 13 8 850 MB ENV VOR 76 48 45 44 46 26 -9 -31 -77 -49 -41 -36 -66 -76 -23 61 -23 200 MB DIV 43 4 27 20 22 23 32 42 7 9 6 -18 -28 -42 78 67 60 700-850 TADV -15 -5 -1 6 3 16 27 6 13 9 2 -10 -7 -23 2 -22 57 LAND (KM) 398 389 384 359 310 140 -57 -237 -403 -562 -656 -659 -690 -844 -935 -694 -313 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 30.9 31.0 31.4 32.0 33.7 36.3 39.1 41.7 43.9 45.2 45.2 44.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.9 75.9 75.8 75.6 75.6 75.7 76.5 77.8 78.8 79.3 79.1 79.3 80.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 3 5 6 11 15 14 12 9 4 4 10 11 13 26 26 HEAT CONTENT 46 46 45 42 38 44 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 6. 8. 9. 7. 4. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -11. -15. -14. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. -3. -7. -11. -15. -18. -10. -6. -3. -6. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 16. 12. 9. 4. -1. -5. 1. 1. 1. -2. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 30.8 75.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952024 INVEST 09/15/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 46.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.02 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.24 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.61 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.92 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 7.4% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952024 INVEST 09/15/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952024 INVEST 09/15/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 36 40 34 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 37 31 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 31 25 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT