* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANCINE AL062024 09/12/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 62 59 55 47 38 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 53 42 35 32 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 53 41 35 31 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 41 49 51 53 47 30 30 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 -4 -12 -9 -7 -1 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 262 259 253 256 277 281 282 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 143 143 144 143 141 140 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.8 -48.6 -48.8 -49.6 -49.8 -50.7 -51.4 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 0.6 1.2 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 2 1 3 2 0 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 54 50 47 44 48 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 25 25 23 18 14 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 7 19 26 18 -12 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 88 75 89 119 98 26 -13 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 55 49 56 34 3 12 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -37 -48 -185 -311 -429 -550 -602 -676 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.6 30.8 32.0 33.2 34.3 35.4 35.9 36.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.9 90.3 89.8 89.8 89.8 90.0 90.0 90.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 9 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 14 CX,CY: 10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -4. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -13. -16. -19. -20. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -13. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -15. -23. -32. -38. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 29.6 90.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062024 FRANCINE 09/12/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 55.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 307.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062024 FRANCINE 09/12/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062024 FRANCINE 09/12/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 53 42 35 32 28 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 58 51 48 44 43 43 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 12HR AGO 70 67 66 59 56 52 51 51 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 57 53 52 52 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT