* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANCINE AL062024 09/11/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 73 69 63 51 41 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 68 52 41 35 29 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 78 54 42 35 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 40 47 53 51 36 28 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 4 -7 -13 -3 -2 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 254 261 257 252 271 293 297 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 27.5 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 131 145 146 144 142 140 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.7 -48.6 -48.6 -48.8 -49.3 -49.8 -51.0 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.8 1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 3 1 3 0 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 56 55 54 51 45 48 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 26 27 26 21 17 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 23 10 19 29 -17 28 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 98 81 79 94 104 31 -7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 18 50 41 47 6 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 107 -13 -36 -164 -305 -498 -560 -620 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.6 30.6 31.9 33.1 34.9 35.5 36.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.1 91.3 90.5 90.1 89.8 90.0 90.0 89.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 13 11 6 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 14 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 14 CX,CY: 9/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -6. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -15. -20. -26. -26. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -4. -11. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -17. -29. -39. -47. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 28.6 92.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062024 FRANCINE 09/11/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 55.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 341.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.55 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .7% .1% .1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062024 FRANCINE 09/11/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062024 FRANCINE 09/11/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 0( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 68 52 41 35 29 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 63 52 46 40 39 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 65 59 53 52 51 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 64 58 57 56 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT