* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANCINE AL062024 09/11/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 79 74 69 56 46 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 82 79 56 43 32 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 83 82 59 44 32 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 30 40 46 51 47 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 7 1 -4 -7 -6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 253 254 261 255 252 275 291 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.1 27.5 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 154 131 151 149 143 141 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.2 -48.9 -48.7 -48.6 -49.0 -49.5 -50.1 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.1 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 3 1 2 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 57 54 56 47 46 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 27 26 28 24 20 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 30 24 6 8 17 -11 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 89 78 48 84 91 -1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 12 16 46 41 25 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 242 122 16 -70 -147 -402 -514 -556 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.5 28.5 29.4 30.6 31.7 34.0 35.0 35.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.2 92.4 91.6 91.0 90.3 90.2 90.4 90.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 12 8 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 59 35 23 4 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 10 CX,CY: 6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -12. -18. -25. -27. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 2. -2. -7. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. -1. -6. -11. -24. -34. -44. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 27.5 93.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062024 FRANCINE 09/11/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 52.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 359.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.47 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.7% 3.4% 2.7% 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.8% 1.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 4.9% .6% .4% .2% 0% 0% 0% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062024 FRANCINE 09/11/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062024 FRANCINE 09/11/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 7( 14) 0( 14) 0( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 82 79 56 43 32 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 76 53 40 29 25 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 53 40 29 25 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 57 46 42 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT