* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANCINE AL062024 09/11/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 83 78 74 62 51 43 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 84 83 69 53 35 29 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 86 88 85 58 36 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 33 34 46 48 55 40 30 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 2 2 1 -10 -5 -2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 264 259 255 260 251 267 291 294 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 29.6 28.9 27.6 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 163 151 133 153 150 149 147 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.1 -49.2 -49.0 -48.7 -48.6 -49.5 -49.9 -51.3 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 6 5 3 4 0 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 57 57 55 51 45 49 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 24 24 26 25 21 16 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 11 25 15 4 25 -25 12 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 60 75 59 49 105 40 12 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 20 15 18 47 42 11 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 281 238 116 2 -51 -292 -488 -578 -661 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.6 28.5 29.6 30.6 33.0 34.8 35.7 36.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.1 93.3 92.4 91.5 90.7 90.0 90.0 89.9 89.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 12 11 7 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 82 57 35 17 4 3 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 9 CX,CY: 5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -8. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -12. -17. -26. -30. -29. -28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -4. -11. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 3. -2. -6. -18. -29. -37. -46. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 26.6 94.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062024 FRANCINE 09/11/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 50.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 354.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 17.9% 6.7% 5.3% 3.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 8.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 16.6% 2.4% 1.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 11.8% 1.2% .9% .5% .1% .1% 0% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062024 FRANCINE 09/11/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062024 FRANCINE 09/11/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 9( 15) 0( 15) 0( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 84 83 69 53 35 29 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 78 64 48 30 24 23 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 62 46 28 22 21 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 54 36 30 29 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 84 75 69 66 58 52 51 50 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 IN 12HR 80 84 83 74 68 64 58 57 56 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29