* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANCINE AL062024 09/11/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 71 71 70 64 58 48 37 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 68 71 71 58 37 30 28 27 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 69 71 72 59 37 30 28 27 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 27 31 34 47 55 51 35 33 36 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 5 5 1 -7 -6 -7 1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 248 259 252 254 258 251 275 289 301 288 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 29.9 29.5 28.2 27.9 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 169 161 140 136 149 150 148 147 147 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.0 -49.2 -49.3 -49.0 -48.9 -48.8 -49.7 -50.6 -52.0 -53.3 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.4 2.1 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 6 5 1 2 0 2 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 57 57 54 50 47 46 48 52 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 25 24 25 27 23 19 13 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 6 9 21 14 17 21 -23 -1 -11 -35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 92 76 72 85 67 58 85 6 14 -35 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 9 10 11 17 39 21 4 6 2 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 245 272 186 76 -57 -194 -440 -583 -631 -705 -805 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.0 27.0 27.9 28.9 29.9 32.1 34.5 35.8 36.3 37.0 37.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.7 93.7 92.7 91.8 91.0 89.9 89.5 89.7 89.4 89.3 89.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 12 12 12 9 5 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 94 66 47 30 8 3 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 9 CX,CY: 5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -19. -21. -22. -22. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 2. -4. -13. -18. -24. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 6. 5. -1. -7. -17. -28. -38. -47. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 26.0 94.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062024 FRANCINE 09/11/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 44.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.06 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.32 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 257.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.66 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.49 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.42 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.92 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 16.9% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.1% 8.9% 5.0% 3.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.7% 8.7% 5.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062024 FRANCINE 09/11/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062024 FRANCINE 09/11/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 0( 6) 0( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 68 71 71 58 37 30 28 27 27 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 67 67 54 33 26 24 23 23 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 61 48 27 20 18 17 17 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 42 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT