* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANCINE AL062024 09/10/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 60 61 60 59 53 42 31 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 60 61 41 31 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 56 58 59 59 41 31 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 15 26 31 36 52 57 40 29 37 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 7 5 4 -2 -9 -5 -2 0 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 208 228 247 259 256 261 250 260 285 297 293 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.4 30.1 29.4 28.2 29.5 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 172 160 141 161 149 149 146 147 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.2 -49.1 -49.3 -49.1 -48.8 -48.6 -49.3 -50.1 -51.5 -52.4 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.4 0.2 0.5 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 5 4 7 2 4 0 4 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 58 58 56 52 48 42 42 47 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 22 25 26 26 23 17 13 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 28 13 11 18 -2 29 -29 17 -13 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 86 98 83 73 74 58 116 31 9 20 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -6 9 14 12 44 54 9 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 193 240 257 205 72 -82 -347 -560 -618 -681 -771 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.3 26.1 26.8 27.9 28.9 31.0 33.5 35.5 36.0 36.6 37.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.3 94.7 94.2 93.2 92.2 90.7 90.3 90.0 90.2 90.2 89.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 11 14 13 12 11 6 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 81 95 76 48 35 5 3 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 8 CX,CY: 5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -15. -17. -18. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 1. -8. -15. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. -2. -13. -24. -36. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 25.3 95.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062024 FRANCINE 09/10/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.27 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 67.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.43 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.75 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.51 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.56 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.92 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 17.8% 11.5% 8.5% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 7.7% 4.3% 2.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 8.5% 5.2% 3.5% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 16.0% 17.0% 10.0% 5.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 9.8% 12.7% 7.6% 4.2% 3.1% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062024 FRANCINE 09/10/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062024 FRANCINE 09/10/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 59 60 61 41 31 28 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 56 57 58 38 28 25 24 24 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 53 33 23 20 19 19 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT