* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANCINE AL062024 09/10/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 63 66 70 74 74 71 60 45 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 58 63 66 70 74 50 34 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 58 61 65 69 73 50 34 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 6 6 15 25 35 52 57 40 27 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 4 6 7 0 -9 -6 0 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 205 240 230 233 253 262 260 247 261 291 298 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.8 30.6 30.4 30.5 30.4 29.1 29.6 29.4 29.1 29.1 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 170 171 172 154 163 159 152 151 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.4 -49.5 -49.1 -49.1 -49.3 -48.5 -48.3 -49.4 -50.0 -51.3 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 0 5 6 5 7 3 4 0 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 65 61 55 56 51 48 42 44 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 21 21 24 26 28 27 23 17 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 5 23 37 18 32 -2 30 -18 15 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 42 66 100 101 75 43 117 25 -16 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -4 -1 7 19 42 54 17 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 150 145 130 185 239 122 -121 -339 -528 -637 -682 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.7 25.2 26.0 26.8 28.6 30.9 33.4 35.1 36.1 36.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.2 96.1 96.0 95.3 94.6 93.1 91.7 90.7 90.9 90.6 89.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 7 10 11 12 13 11 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 87 80 71 89 79 41 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -10. -14. -15. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 8. 3. -7. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 9. 5. 2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 11. 15. 19. 19. 16. 5. -10. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.2 96.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062024 FRANCINE 09/10/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.61 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 81.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.52 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.47 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.66 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.8 109.2 to 0.0 0.97 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 46.7% 30.6% 17.4% 7.7% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.1% 22.6% 16.3% 4.5% 1.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 23.5% 15.9% 7.5% 3.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 50.0% 28.0% 20.0% 5.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 6.7% 36.7% 21.9% 13.7% 4.0% 6.9% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062024 FRANCINE 09/10/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062024 FRANCINE 09/10/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 5( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 63 66 70 74 50 34 29 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 59 62 66 70 46 30 25 23 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 58 62 38 22 17 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 49 53 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT