* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANCINE AL062024 09/10/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 71 75 82 84 79 71 55 38 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 71 75 82 67 40 31 28 27 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 59 63 67 72 82 69 40 31 28 27 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 4 5 7 16 31 42 54 54 31 29 37 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 -1 0 3 6 7 -5 -7 -6 0 -7 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 189 231 258 206 224 253 251 253 241 271 285 297 287 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.5 30.4 30.5 29.6 28.5 29.7 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 170 170 171 163 145 165 153 151 150 152 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.1 -49.5 -49.7 -49.5 -49.4 -49.3 -48.8 -48.9 -49.8 -50.8 -51.8 -53.0 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.3 1.8 2.1 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 1 0 5 6 4 5 1 2 0 2 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 71 69 65 62 58 54 50 48 46 48 55 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 19 20 24 27 27 27 21 15 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 2 2 28 30 11 17 12 19 -9 9 0 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 55 46 67 92 63 88 90 88 10 -10 -41 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 -2 -6 -2 12 22 46 37 4 8 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 173 170 152 168 205 187 -48 -262 -492 -626 -693 -748 -829 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.4 24.9 25.6 26.2 28.0 30.2 32.7 34.8 36.1 36.8 37.4 38.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.0 96.0 95.9 95.5 95.1 93.5 91.6 90.7 90.4 90.1 89.8 89.2 88.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 9 12 14 12 9 5 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 85 86 77 81 93 47 3 5 4 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 51.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -1. -6. -11. -13. -13. -14. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 9. 9. 9. 1. -9. -14. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 18. 14. 8. 3. -2. -6. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 20. 27. 29. 24. 16. 0. -17. -28. -37. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 23.9 96.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062024 FRANCINE 09/10/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 14.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.72 7.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 84.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.54 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 4.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.90 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.42 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.65 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 66% is 6.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.6% 65.6% 47.5% 35.1% 18.6% 33.7% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 13.5% 35.4% 26.9% 6.5% 1.6% 2.1% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.7% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.2% 34.7% 25.8% 14.9% 7.0% 12.1% 4.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 25.0% 13.0% 12.0% 3.0% 19.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 8.6% 29.8% 19.4% 13.4% 5.0% 15.5% 2.8% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062024 FRANCINE 09/10/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062024 FRANCINE 09/10/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 5( 7) 8( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 60 65 71 75 82 67 40 31 28 27 27 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 59 65 69 76 61 34 25 22 21 21 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 57 61 68 53 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 49 56 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT