* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANCINE AL062024 09/09/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 57 61 69 77 76 72 63 47 34 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 57 61 69 77 66 40 31 28 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 50 53 62 73 65 40 31 28 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 4 4 7 6 15 28 41 53 49 29 27 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 8 7 0 -2 2 4 6 -7 -4 -6 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 338 350 232 236 276 231 253 256 254 240 280 291 305 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 31.0 30.8 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.5 29.5 27.7 30.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 170 169 170 171 160 134 172 153 152 153 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -49.7 -49.4 -49.8 -49.9 -49.3 -49.3 -48.6 -49.1 -49.4 -50.0 -51.6 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 4 2 1 6 4 6 1 2 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 75 72 71 70 63 61 61 55 55 50 50 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 16 16 19 25 27 29 28 22 17 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 17 10 2 4 32 11 17 10 31 3 2 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 51 54 44 50 85 76 98 91 80 4 21 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 4 5 0 0 12 23 39 23 9 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 297 271 224 204 171 206 166 -10 -229 -447 -594 -726 -852 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.3 23.9 24.4 24.9 26.3 28.0 29.8 32.3 34.4 35.9 37.2 38.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.7 95.1 95.5 95.6 95.7 95.1 93.9 92.3 91.1 90.3 89.7 89.2 88.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 6 5 6 9 10 13 12 9 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 73 72 80 83 78 92 44 15 5 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 49.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -2. -7. -9. -10. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 9. 11. 14. 13. 4. -5. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 17. 13. 8. 3. -2. -6. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 24. 32. 31. 27. 18. 2. -11. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 22.7 94.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062024 FRANCINE 09/09/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 10.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.74 6.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 77.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.50 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.70 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 12.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.92 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.33 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.77 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 5.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 57.3% 39.7% 24.2% 16.1% 38.6% 21.7% 17.6% Logistic: 32.1% 55.9% 49.1% 25.1% 11.5% 15.6% 5.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 5.3% 5.2% 4.4% 3.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 14.9% 39.5% 31.0% 17.6% 9.7% 18.2% 9.1% 5.9% DTOPS: 3.0% 17.0% 8.0% 5.0% 2.0% 16.0% 24.0% 0.0% SDCON: 8.9% 28.2% 19.5% 11.3% 5.8% 17.1% 16.5% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062024 FRANCINE 09/09/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062024 FRANCINE 09/09/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 52 57 61 69 77 66 40 31 28 27 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 48 53 57 65 73 62 36 27 24 23 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 46 50 58 66 55 29 20 17 16 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 47 55 44 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT