* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062024 09/09/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 56 60 67 70 74 70 65 56 42 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 56 60 67 70 74 51 34 29 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 51 53 59 67 73 51 34 29 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 7 6 2 2 7 29 36 53 54 46 28 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 7 8 0 -1 4 2 3 -3 -5 -3 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 40 2 38 103 203 219 246 250 253 245 255 286 302 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 31.2 31.2 31.1 30.9 30.7 30.4 30.4 28.7 29.7 30.2 29.4 29.4 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 170 170 170 170 171 147 165 172 159 156 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -49.9 -49.8 -49.5 -49.7 -49.5 -49.5 -49.1 -48.5 -49.3 -50.0 -51.7 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.5 2.1 1.1 0.9 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 3 4 1 5 4 7 4 4 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 78 77 74 72 67 62 60 55 55 47 48 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 15 15 15 16 18 24 25 27 26 20 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 15 14 13 2 19 7 25 1 34 -18 3 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 19 47 49 50 64 75 84 67 140 48 -13 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 1 1 1 1 -5 4 11 36 54 28 11 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 274 256 249 222 187 142 210 100 -101 -303 -563 -709 -737 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.4 22.8 23.6 24.3 25.4 26.9 28.8 30.7 33.0 35.5 37.0 37.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.7 95.0 95.3 95.5 95.8 95.8 95.1 93.7 92.3 91.1 90.1 89.5 89.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 8 7 7 10 11 12 13 11 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 75 86 83 82 84 73 79 45 4 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. -1. -6. -10. -11. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 10. 12. 15. 13. 2. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 16. 12. 7. 2. -2. -5. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 15. 22. 25. 29. 25. 20. 11. -3. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 22.0 94.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062024 SIX 09/09/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 9.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.70 5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 82.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.53 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 12.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.91 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.31 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.83 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 4.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 48.9% 32.5% 22.1% 8.0% 34.7% 23.5% 18.8% Logistic: 15.1% 30.7% 22.7% 9.5% 3.7% 8.4% 3.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.5% 13.0% 6.1% 3.6% 1.5% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 8.3% 30.9% 20.4% 11.7% 4.4% 15.0% 9.0% 6.3% DTOPS: 3.0% 11.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 11.0% 22.0% 1.0% SDCON: 5.6% 20.9% 12.7% 7.3% 2.7% 13.0% 15.5% 3.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062024 SIX 09/09/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062024 SIX 09/09/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 52 56 60 67 70 74 51 34 29 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 47 51 55 62 65 69 46 29 24 23 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 49 56 59 63 40 23 18 17 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 46 49 53 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT