* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062024 09/09/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 58 64 71 78 80 83 80 68 60 49 34 23 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 51 58 64 71 78 80 83 68 40 31 28 28 28 29 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 50 55 60 64 72 81 90 75 42 31 28 28 28 29 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 2 3 4 4 8 18 29 45 52 47 31 27 31 31 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 3 4 3 -2 4 7 4 -2 -1 -8 -1 -7 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 66 104 3 26 162 239 222 242 249 251 243 277 297 299 293 N/A N/A SST (C) 31.2 31.2 31.1 31.0 30.8 30.5 30.2 29.3 29.0 30.6 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.0 28.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 170 169 170 170 158 153 172 159 158 158 149 141 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.5 -49.9 -50.0 -49.7 -49.4 -49.9 -49.4 -49.3 -49.0 -49.3 -50.1 -51.1 -52.6 -53.7 -53.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.8 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.6 0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 1 2 3 0 6 3 6 2 3 0 2 0 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 76 76 74 73 69 64 59 57 53 51 48 48 52 52 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 14 16 16 16 23 26 26 27 24 17 13 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 32 23 25 11 5 19 0 19 -9 16 -30 -14 -41 -38 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 39 38 57 46 42 84 76 80 87 100 5 -3 -26 4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 0 -1 0 0 0 6 21 42 19 13 7 1 12 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 273 252 243 225 194 152 116 102 -40 -274 -486 -663 -760 -842 -895 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.3 22.7 23.3 23.8 24.9 26.2 28.0 30.1 32.5 34.7 36.4 37.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.7 95.0 95.3 95.5 95.8 95.9 96.0 95.0 93.0 91.7 91.0 90.3 89.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 12 13 12 10 8 5 4 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 74 86 86 81 85 75 65 36 5 6 4 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 62.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 6. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 2. -3. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 10. 15. 14. 16. 10. 0. -7. -11. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 10. 16. 23. 23. 18. 11. 4. -3. -8. -12. -15. -15. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 19. 26. 33. 35. 38. 35. 23. 15. 4. -11. -22. -29. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.9 94.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062024 SIX 09/09/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 14.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.74 7.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 82.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.53 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 6.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 6.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.92 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.34 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.83 2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 5.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 45% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 43% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 64.3% 46.3% 32.4% 17.7% 45.5% 42.5% 23.8% Logistic: 35.8% 63.3% 56.1% 38.7% 18.1% 31.6% 9.9% 0.4% Bayesian: 15.9% 46.7% 28.2% 24.4% 12.0% 12.9% 1.0% 0.0% Consensus: 21.6% 58.1% 43.5% 31.8% 15.9% 30.0% 17.8% 8.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 15.0% 6.0% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% SDCON: 13.8% 36.5% 24.7% 18.4% 9.4% 17.0% 11.4% 5.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062024 SIX 09/09/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062024 SIX 09/09/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 6( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 1( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 51 58 64 71 78 80 83 68 40 31 28 28 28 29 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 51 57 64 71 73 76 61 33 24 21 21 21 22 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 47 54 61 63 66 51 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 42 49 51 54 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT