* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062024 09/08/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 52 58 63 70 76 78 76 68 59 49 33 23 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 46 52 58 63 70 76 78 65 42 32 28 27 28 28 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 46 52 57 62 71 77 84 72 45 32 28 27 28 28 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 3 5 1 2 9 14 34 42 53 54 46 33 35 28 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 0 1 7 0 0 3 0 -2 -5 -4 -6 -4 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 45 135 174 36 116 216 230 248 256 253 249 253 293 305 311 N/A N/A SST (C) 31.1 31.2 31.2 31.1 31.0 30.7 30.1 29.4 28.0 30.9 30.7 29.5 29.4 28.7 28.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 169 169 170 171 158 137 171 171 161 159 146 139 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -49.6 -50.0 -50.1 -49.7 -49.8 -49.6 -49.2 -48.7 -48.4 -49.1 -49.4 -51.6 -52.9 -54.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.7 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 3 1 3 2 4 4 7 4 6 0 3 0 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 75 76 75 73 68 63 53 54 51 52 50 46 49 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 14 15 16 18 21 24 26 27 26 18 15 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 44 32 24 19 1 17 0 19 -8 23 0 2 -41 -23 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 41 36 33 63 32 43 81 86 44 114 48 3 -6 6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 4 4 1 2 5 0 9 14 33 32 18 11 5 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 265 242 209 205 179 150 67 104 -13 -110 -248 -398 -653 -806 -870 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 5 5 7 8 9 10 9 10 13 12 8 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 62 83 92 83 83 86 51 31 29 6 6 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 54.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 13. 11. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 3. -3. -9. -13. -15. -18. -20. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 17. 14. 3. -3. -8. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 19. 19. 15. 9. 3. -2. -6. -10. -12. -13. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 23. 30. 36. 38. 36. 28. 19. 9. -7. -17. -25. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.4 94.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062024 SIX 09/08/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 15.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.75 7.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 80.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.52 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.70 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 5.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.92 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.34 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.88 2.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 5.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 46% is 9.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 63.3% 45.6% 28.2% 11.8% 41.4% 46.0% 26.4% Logistic: 27.2% 55.4% 47.3% 20.7% 5.6% 23.2% 10.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 17.6% 18.8% 19.9% 13.2% 4.7% 14.6% 5.5% 0.0% Consensus: 18.5% 45.8% 37.6% 20.7% 7.4% 26.4% 20.7% 8.9% DTOPS: 4.0% 16.0% 9.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% SDCON: 11.2% 30.9% 23.3% 14.3% 5.7% 14.2% 11.3% 5.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062024 SIX 09/08/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062024 SIX 09/08/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 46 52 58 63 70 76 78 65 42 32 28 27 28 28 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 45 51 56 63 69 71 58 35 25 21 20 21 21 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 42 47 54 60 62 49 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 35 42 48 50 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT