* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912024 09/08/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 44 49 52 56 60 62 62 58 55 46 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 40 44 49 52 56 60 62 62 46 34 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 41 46 50 53 58 62 67 70 52 36 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 6 6 6 3 5 10 19 38 43 52 60 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 9 2 3 5 -4 3 0 5 -2 -7 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 322 38 85 126 82 179 258 232 245 245 252 250 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.8 31.0 31.1 31.2 31.2 30.9 30.4 29.4 28.2 28.2 30.8 30.6 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 169 170 170 170 158 139 139 172 172 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -49.8 -49.6 -50.0 -50.2 -49.7 -50.2 -49.4 -49.4 -48.9 -49.1 -49.6 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.8 1.7 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 6 4 2 5 1 7 4 7 3 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 76 77 77 75 71 68 59 51 53 49 49 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 12 12 13 13 13 17 20 23 22 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 38 44 32 23 17 -1 14 -4 18 -10 11 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 41 39 39 37 50 42 78 63 64 37 48 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 5 8 6 4 6 0 0 8 10 28 33 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 225 219 203 208 187 158 81 21 28 -37 -106 -304 -539 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 9 9 9 11 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 51 64 81 91 83 63 36 22 22 6 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 19. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 7. 2. -3. -9. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 3. 6. 11. 8. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 13. 10. 6. 2. -2. -4. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 25. 27. 27. 23. 20. 11. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.5 94.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912024 INVEST 09/08/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 13.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.69 5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 65.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.42 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.76 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.88 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.30 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.92 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 52.0% 36.1% 22.1% 7.4% 27.5% 36.9% 35.3% Logistic: 30.5% 54.8% 43.1% 22.4% 8.3% 37.2% 33.2% 2.2% Bayesian: 25.8% 44.9% 27.1% 17.3% 4.1% 25.2% 4.4% 0.2% Consensus: 20.9% 50.5% 35.4% 20.6% 6.6% 29.9% 24.9% 12.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% SDCON: 11.4% 26.7% 18.7% 11.3% 3.8% 14.9% 12.4% 7.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912024 INVEST 09/08/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912024 INVEST 09/08/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 40 44 49 52 56 60 62 62 46 34 29 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 38 43 46 50 54 56 56 40 28 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 39 43 47 49 49 33 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 32 36 38 38 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT