* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912024 09/08/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 34 38 39 35 29 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 34 38 39 35 29 26 26 27 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 32 33 34 34 32 28 25 26 27 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 10 9 7 6 11 8 14 30 42 52 55 61 50 54 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -1 5 7 3 8 -1 0 6 2 2 -5 -4 -3 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 10 16 52 74 63 37 206 239 243 247 246 246 255 266 276 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.5 30.6 30.7 31.0 31.3 31.1 30.6 30.0 29.2 28.8 31.4 30.9 29.7 29.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 169 169 171 171 171 169 154 148 172 172 162 161 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.3 -50.0 -49.7 -50.1 -50.1 -50.3 -49.7 -49.6 -49.3 -49.1 -49.5 -50.2 -50.9 -50.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 7 5 6 3 5 4 7 5 6 0 3 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 76 76 78 79 79 72 68 58 53 52 46 42 38 38 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 44 44 45 40 33 12 -1 0 25 3 17 -5 17 1 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 28 32 34 34 63 57 53 78 70 25 44 18 13 -20 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 3 8 5 1 6 1 10 6 1 -3 -24 -15 -23 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 93 140 181 200 210 210 148 72 70 74 27 -135 -385 -518 -577 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 5 4 6 8 9 8 8 7 10 13 11 6 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 37 38 39 47 86 87 55 40 29 46 7 6 5 5 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 7. 13. 16. 19. 21. 23. 26. 27. 25. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 7. 2. -5. -11. -18. -25. -32. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 14. 10. 4. 0. -5. -9. -15. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.4 93.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912024 INVEST 09/08/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.66 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.71 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.88 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.29 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.96 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 17.5% 11.2% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 15.1% 7.5% 2.2% 0.7% 9.9% 28.9% 8.0% Bayesian: 2.2% 7.9% 2.3% 0.8% 0.1% 3.9% 15.4% 1.0% Consensus: 3.2% 13.5% 7.0% 3.5% 0.3% 4.6% 19.4% 3.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.1% 7.2% 4.0% 1.7% .1% 2.3% 9.7% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912024 INVEST 09/08/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912024 INVEST 09/08/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 29 31 34 38 39 35 29 26 26 27 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 29 32 36 37 33 27 24 24 25 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 28 32 33 29 23 20 20 21 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 21 25 26 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT