* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912024 09/08/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 21 23 26 31 34 32 29 27 24 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 21 23 26 31 34 32 29 25 26 27 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 21 19 24 26 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 13 14 10 12 12 6 14 31 39 50 54 52 53 51 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 2 -1 3 7 1 8 0 2 3 8 -4 -3 -3 -4 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 22 15 20 40 60 9 53 247 232 242 237 248 254 274 279 286 277 SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.9 31.3 30.9 30.6 30.1 29.1 30.5 31.2 30.5 29.7 29.7 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 169 168 169 170 171 171 170 171 153 172 171 170 162 163 167 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.3 -50.5 -50.2 -49.8 -50.5 -49.7 -50.5 -49.8 -49.8 -49.2 -49.4 -50.2 -50.4 -50.4 -50.8 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 7 4 5 2 7 4 7 2 4 0 2 0 2 700-500 MB RH 78 78 76 76 78 78 75 72 64 56 55 49 44 36 39 43 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 59 47 45 42 30 28 0 17 4 18 -9 10 -21 -3 -20 5 200 MB DIV 49 33 33 34 38 48 68 52 80 70 52 49 65 13 0 0 8 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 0 4 2 2 3 4 4 6 7 4 1 7 9 14 LAND (KM) 47 71 102 135 165 259 262 183 94 144 67 -54 -282 -394 -460 -562 -709 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 4 6 9 9 7 8 9 11 10 7 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 34 33 34 37 38 44 83 87 59 47 36 6 6 6 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 8. 14. 18. 21. 24. 27. 30. 31. 30. 30. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 4. -1. -6. -12. -20. -26. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 14. 12. 9. 7. 4. -0. -6. -9. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 19.1 92.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912024 INVEST 09/08/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.90 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.31 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.94 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 15.5% 7.6% 3.0% 1.4% 13.9% 31.1% 45.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 1.7% 24.3% Consensus: 1.5% 5.8% 2.7% 1.1% 0.5% 4.8% 10.9% 23.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .7% 3.4% 1.8% .5% .2% 2.4% 5.4% 11.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912024 INVEST 09/08/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912024 INVEST 09/08/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 20 21 23 26 31 34 32 29 25 26 27 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 19 19 20 22 25 30 33 31 28 24 25 26 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 19 22 27 30 28 25 21 22 23 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT