* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912024 09/07/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 22 26 32 38 43 44 47 50 53 54 54 54 51 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 22 23 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 22 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 7 11 15 15 16 14 6 6 5 4 6 11 14 23 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 11 4 -1 2 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 3 3 -3 -5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 27 38 25 42 66 100 99 135 142 144 212 189 263 256 270 261 266 SST (C) 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.4 29.5 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.1 28.8 28.1 27.5 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 170 170 170 159 154 154 150 147 147 151 147 137 129 129 130 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.2 -50.5 -50.7 -50.4 -50.3 -50.2 -50.3 -50.1 -49.9 -49.9 -49.7 -49.8 -49.8 -50.2 -50.1 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 5 7 5 5 4 6 5 8 7 9 7 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 80 80 81 79 78 83 80 79 76 72 64 61 57 56 51 51 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 64 64 58 58 66 70 84 92 97 83 59 34 24 0 8 -8 200 MB DIV 52 41 41 28 37 41 71 56 62 48 14 73 49 -1 0 30 6 700-850 TADV 2 4 1 2 3 4 2 5 2 -1 0 -2 2 3 3 4 -1 LAND (KM) 19 41 41 38 10 -57 -189 -274 -231 -229 -186 -161 -73 -63 -134 -231 -342 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.8 18.7 18.8 18.8 18.9 19.3 19.6 20.0 20.2 20.3 20.5 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.6 93.3 93.9 94.6 95.3 96.6 98.3 99.9 101.4 102.3 103.1 103.9 104.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 6 4 3 4 6 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 34 33 34 37 34 24 11 14 16 14 15 16 13 11 7 5 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 9. 17. 22. 27. 31. 35. 39. 42. 42. 43. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 24. 27. 30. 33. 34. 34. 34. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 18.8 92.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912024 INVEST 09/07/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 17.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.32 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.99 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.9% 41.9% 26.6% 16.8% 11.1% 28.2% 46.7% 71.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% 0.9% 82.1% Consensus: 3.9% 15.0% 9.1% 5.6% 3.7% 9.8% 15.9% 51.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.4% 8.5% 5.0% 2.8% 1.8% 4.9% 7.9% 25.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912024 INVEST 09/07/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912024 INVEST 09/07/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 21 22 23 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 20 19 19 20 21 22 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 19 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT