* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912024 09/07/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 31 37 43 47 48 50 54 58 62 62 63 63 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 21 23 26 26 27 31 32 33 37 42 45 45 46 46 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 21 23 26 26 27 30 32 35 38 42 46 51 55 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 7 8 10 20 16 15 8 13 5 10 6 3 2 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 4 3 0 -3 0 -4 -2 -3 0 -3 1 0 5 2 0 5 SHEAR DIR 24 58 50 40 43 99 103 101 112 125 169 114 112 112 165 171 246 SST (C) 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.0 29.6 29.1 28.8 29.7 30.8 30.9 31.4 31.2 30.6 29.8 28.5 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 170 168 160 151 147 164 171 171 170 169 170 165 143 129 129 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.8 -50.4 -50.7 -50.9 -50.1 -50.9 -50.1 -50.7 -50.1 -50.6 -49.7 -50.2 -49.5 -49.9 -49.3 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 6 5 7 3 6 3 9 6 10 6 9 5 8 4 700-500 MB RH 80 80 81 81 78 81 83 83 79 76 71 63 58 58 55 54 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 56 65 65 58 71 74 74 76 53 48 64 58 46 32 35 14 200 MB DIV 27 29 32 27 31 29 73 74 69 49 45 78 87 30 20 33 -16 700-850 TADV -4 2 2 0 0 7 5 1 1 -1 -3 -2 -1 1 -2 -3 -8 LAND (KM) 20 37 26 -35 -70 -153 -131 -70 30 70 143 154 155 180 162 50 89 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.7 18.5 18.3 18.1 17.8 17.5 17.5 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.5 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.7 93.8 94.5 95.2 95.7 96.8 98.1 99.9 101.9 103.7 105.2 106.1 106.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 6 6 5 7 9 10 8 6 5 6 8 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 33 34 34 30 26 21 10 21 31 39 56 47 31 21 13 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 3. 10. 18. 23. 28. 32. 36. 40. 44. 45. 46. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. -10. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 17. 23. 27. 28. 30. 34. 38. 42. 42. 43. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 18.8 92.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912024 INVEST 09/07/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 21.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.27 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.96 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.3% 56.8% 40.7% 19.6% 14.1% 35.9% 41.4% 67.8% Bayesian: 1.3% 5.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 1.9% 1.6% 83.2% Consensus: 5.2% 20.8% 14.0% 6.7% 4.7% 12.6% 14.3% 50.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912024 INVEST 09/07/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912024 INVEST 09/07/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 21 23 26 26 27 31 32 33 37 42 45 45 46 46 18HR AGO 20 19 20 19 21 24 24 25 29 30 31 35 40 43 43 44 44 12HR AGO 20 17 16 15 17 20 20 21 25 26 27 31 36 39 39 40 40 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT