* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912024 06/17/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 48 52 59 63 63 57 48 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 48 52 59 63 63 40 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 46 51 56 60 40 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 10 3 6 10 10 14 26 31 34 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 1 0 2 -1 -2 -1 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 286 246 280 60 75 58 70 31 23 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.0 30.1 29.7 28.6 28.6 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 166 169 169 169 168 170 162 144 144 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -49.6 -49.8 -50.0 -49.6 -49.5 -49.4 -49.5 -49.7 -49.9 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 6 6 10 8 10 9 11 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 77 76 69 66 68 64 69 72 75 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 177 189 178 164 161 170 143 156 91 58 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 122 88 91 65 60 42 46 39 14 25 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 -2 -6 -3 0 -4 0 -13 -17 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 163 222 277 282 282 234 148 21 -113 -245 -374 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 29 31 33 34 41 49 31 15 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 19. 21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. -2. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -8. -12. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 24. 28. 28. 22. 13. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.0 93.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912024 INVEST 06/17/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.75 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.88 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.52 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.78 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.98 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 38.1% 21.9% 9.5% 6.4% 15.6% 16.9% 21.3% Logistic: 9.6% 36.3% 28.0% 19.3% 5.4% 14.5% 8.0% 5.9% Bayesian: 4.3% 6.8% 5.9% 2.8% 0.8% 5.0% 5.9% 77.6% Consensus: 6.2% 27.1% 18.6% 10.5% 4.2% 11.7% 10.3% 35.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.1% 17.5% 10.8% 6.2% 2.6% 6.3% 5.6% 17.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912024 INVEST 06/17/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912024 INVEST 06/17/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 43 48 52 59 63 63 40 31 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 38 43 47 54 58 58 35 26 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 40 47 51 51 28 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 36 40 40 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT