* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052024 08/19/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 74 68 60 47 35 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 78 74 68 60 47 35 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 79 71 63 54 43 36 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 17 20 21 25 33 37 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 9 8 10 8 7 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 243 258 265 254 278 287 270 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 22.8 21.2 18.2 14.5 16.8 15.6 14.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 96 89 81 75 79 77 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -49.9 -50.4 -50.9 -51.2 -50.8 -50.1 -46.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 -0.6 -0.7 0.3 1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 59 61 65 66 66 58 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 28 27 24 21 18 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -55 -16 -30 -18 -1 40 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 50 47 46 45 52 48 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 34 57 29 23 7 25 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 494 423 251 178 433 1197 1029 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.9 42.7 44.5 46.2 47.8 49.9 51.7 54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.6 57.1 54.7 50.8 46.9 36.6 25.3 14.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 25 28 32 33 36 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 19 CX,CY: 10/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -18. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -14. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -12. -20. -33. -45. -56. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 40.9 59.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052024 ERNESTO 08/19/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.26 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 480.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 4.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052024 ERNESTO 08/19/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052024 ERNESTO 08/19/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 5( 12) 0( 12) 0( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 78 74 68 60 47 35 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 75 69 61 48 36 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 70 62 49 37 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 62 49 37 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT