* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052024 08/19/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 72 69 65 54 42 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 72 72 69 65 54 42 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 73 72 69 63 50 41 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 14 14 14 20 26 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 5 9 8 7 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 238 237 236 244 247 257 268 274 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.7 25.4 22.7 21.0 14.5 16.4 15.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 112 95 88 75 79 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.1 -50.2 -50.1 -50.3 -51.1 -50.5 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.4 -0.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 57 59 60 63 69 63 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 28 28 28 25 21 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -22 -35 -52 -23 -21 11 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 22 52 53 57 41 59 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 14 11 35 47 22 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 713 624 514 448 253 469 1269 895 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.7 39.3 40.8 42.6 44.4 47.6 50.0 52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.0 60.6 59.3 56.8 54.3 46.4 35.6 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 22 26 29 34 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 14 CX,CY: 5/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -12. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -12. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. -1. -5. -16. -28. -35. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 37.7 62.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052024 ERNESTO 08/19/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.45 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.69 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 483.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.43 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.03 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.94 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 15.8% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 2.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.5% 6.1% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 5.2% 3.5% 2.5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052024 ERNESTO 08/19/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052024 ERNESTO 08/19/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 2( 10) 0( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 72 72 69 65 54 42 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 69 66 62 51 39 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 63 59 48 36 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 56 45 33 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT