* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052024 08/17/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 63 64 65 64 59 51 42 33 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 63 63 64 65 64 59 51 42 33 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 62 61 61 62 63 59 49 40 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 6 9 15 20 20 26 34 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 2 0 2 8 9 10 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 275 278 265 224 236 227 257 277 296 293 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.6 22.7 19.1 16.9 16.4 15.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 141 139 137 135 95 83 78 78 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.6 -50.5 -50.4 -50.1 -49.8 -49.8 -50.3 -50.5 -49.9 -48.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.3 -0.5 0.6 2.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 5 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 43 46 52 54 59 61 65 66 65 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 32 32 32 32 31 30 28 23 20 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 40 35 32 23 -25 -39 -24 -18 41 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 5 -15 1 44 35 57 56 46 51 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 8 7 6 11 25 35 33 53 36 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1091 1043 996 923 838 592 374 137 740 1448 843 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.0 33.6 34.2 35.3 36.3 39.4 43.0 46.3 48.6 50.3 51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.2 64.0 63.7 63.2 62.8 61.0 57.6 51.3 42.8 33.1 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 9 11 14 19 25 30 32 33 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 19 22 25 23 27 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -6. -11. -12. -16. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -17. -24. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. -6. -14. -23. -32. -31. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 33.0 64.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052024 ERNESTO 08/17/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.73 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 464.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.45 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.69 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 14.0% 9.4% 7.8% 7.1% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 3.0% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.7% 3.9% 2.8% 2.4% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 3.8% 2.4% 1.4% 1.2% 2.4% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052024 ERNESTO 08/17/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052024 ERNESTO 08/17/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 2( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 63 63 64 65 64 59 51 42 33 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 64 65 66 65 60 52 43 34 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 62 63 62 57 49 40 31 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 56 55 50 42 33 24 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT