* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052024 08/17/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 75 75 74 74 69 63 57 48 44 37 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 77 75 75 74 74 69 63 57 48 44 37 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 77 74 72 71 71 70 64 52 42 35 30 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 14 11 6 4 12 17 21 27 33 38 42 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 1 1 2 -3 0 4 5 6 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 247 243 256 253 222 245 245 262 275 295 305 310 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.1 27.7 22.4 16.1 17.2 13.1 13.9 14.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 141 141 142 140 136 94 77 79 73 73 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.8 -50.6 -50.4 -50.3 -49.7 -49.7 -49.3 -50.2 -50.5 -50.3 -49.3 -47.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 7 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 48 47 44 47 54 61 62 64 67 72 72 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 33 33 33 32 30 29 28 23 21 15 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 57 46 33 30 19 -22 -44 -51 -27 44 104 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 4 25 12 -4 50 48 41 65 42 34 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 32 9 11 7 3 10 34 39 39 66 48 101 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1062 1059 1049 1000 954 792 552 360 148 805 1357 790 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.0 32.7 33.3 33.9 34.5 36.7 39.9 43.4 47.0 50.1 52.6 54.3 55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.1 64.8 64.5 64.3 64.0 62.9 60.9 57.1 50.8 42.1 31.9 22.1 13.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 6 9 15 20 25 31 33 32 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 29 24 20 22 26 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 11 CX,CY: 5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -7. -15. -20. -25. -27. -29. -29. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -12. -20. -25. -35. -44. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -11. -17. -22. -32. -36. -43. -55. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 32.0 65.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052024 ERNESTO 08/17/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.58 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 521.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.39 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.55 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 10.1% 7.1% 5.6% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.7% 2.6% 1.9% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .7% 2.3% 1.3% .9% .8% .5% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052024 ERNESTO 08/17/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052024 ERNESTO 08/17/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 5( 12) 5( 16) 5( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 77 75 75 74 74 69 63 57 48 44 37 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 77 77 76 76 71 65 59 50 46 39 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 76 75 75 70 64 58 49 45 38 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 69 69 64 58 52 43 39 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT