* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052024 08/17/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 85 84 82 79 78 71 66 54 45 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 84 85 84 82 79 78 71 66 54 45 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 84 82 80 77 75 76 74 61 46 38 34 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 27 12 11 8 7 14 17 20 24 34 36 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 1 4 0 -1 0 0 2 7 10 7 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 258 243 220 215 207 222 241 253 263 287 291 304 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.4 27.9 24.9 19.2 14.3 14.9 13.8 14.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 147 146 144 140 143 138 109 82 74 75 74 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.1 -50.5 -50.4 -50.2 -50.1 -49.3 -49.3 -49.5 -50.2 -49.6 -49.0 -47.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.6 -0.4 0.6 1.0 1.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 45 49 46 46 52 56 61 60 66 70 67 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 36 34 32 32 33 31 31 26 22 20 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 26 58 48 37 29 0 -32 -55 -53 26 119 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 18 18 36 15 29 30 79 51 67 32 30 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 32 31 9 8 7 6 15 25 60 22 26 91 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1098 1100 1109 1091 1031 916 706 440 180 458 1145 1156 447 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.0 31.7 32.3 33.0 33.7 35.3 37.8 41.6 45.0 48.3 51.2 53.0 53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.3 64.8 64.4 64.2 64.0 63.3 61.9 59.0 53.8 46.6 37.5 27.4 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 8 11 18 24 28 31 33 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 26 30 26 21 25 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 12 CX,CY: 6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -7. -15. -22. -27. -31. -33. -35. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -5. -6. -15. -21. -26. -29. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -14. -19. -31. -40. -44. -47. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 31.0 65.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052024 ERNESTO 08/17/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.48 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 565.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.34 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.27 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.09 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.66 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 12.1% 8.6% 6.9% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 2.6% 1.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 4.9% 3.5% 2.6% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052024 ERNESTO 08/17/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052024 ERNESTO 08/17/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 10( 19) 8( 25) 7( 31) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 84 85 84 82 79 78 71 66 54 45 41 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 85 84 82 79 78 71 66 54 45 41 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 80 78 75 74 67 62 50 41 37 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 73 70 69 62 57 45 36 32 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 63 62 55 50 38 29 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 84 75 69 66 64 63 56 51 39 30 26 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 84 85 76 70 66 65 58 53 41 32 28 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS