* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052024 08/16/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 83 82 81 76 75 71 63 54 46 36 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 84 83 82 81 76 75 71 63 54 46 36 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 84 82 79 76 71 70 70 63 50 40 33 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 21 26 14 13 8 14 16 20 22 32 45 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 12 6 3 1 1 -1 2 9 12 9 1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 295 249 261 256 232 257 200 245 219 248 272 306 328 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.5 22.5 16.3 16.4 14.7 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 146 144 143 142 143 134 94 77 78 76 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.2 -50.0 -50.5 -50.3 -50.0 -49.5 -49.5 -49.5 -50.0 -50.3 -50.6 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 0.5 1.2 1.4 0.5 0.5 -0.1 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 43 43 46 45 45 51 57 60 63 65 71 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 35 36 35 33 34 33 31 28 24 19 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 43 34 61 59 37 28 -9 -26 -36 -40 -28 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 95 63 15 14 36 -6 57 43 52 51 43 24 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 35 29 28 12 11 4 10 26 36 25 67 72 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1096 1078 1068 1052 1042 949 804 541 342 102 735 1469 654 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.9 31.7 32.4 33.1 34.4 36.5 39.8 43.3 46.7 49.7 51.6 52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.1 65.6 65.2 65.0 64.8 64.3 63.4 61.3 57.7 51.6 43.0 32.2 19.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 7 9 15 20 25 30 34 37 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 20 25 30 27 20 30 18 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 13 CX,CY: 7/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -7. -14. -21. -27. -30. -33. -34. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -3. -6. -9. -15. -22. -30. -37. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -9. -10. -14. -22. -31. -39. -49. -56. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 30.0 66.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052024 ERNESTO 08/16/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.33 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 608.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.30 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.34 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.57 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 10.2% 7.2% 5.6% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 1.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 3.9% 2.8% 2.1% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 1.9% 1.4% 1.0% .8% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052024 ERNESTO 08/16/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052024 ERNESTO 08/16/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 9( 18) 8( 25) 5( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 84 83 82 81 76 75 71 63 54 46 36 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 83 82 81 76 75 71 63 54 46 36 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 80 79 74 73 69 61 52 44 34 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 74 69 68 64 56 47 39 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 61 60 56 48 39 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 84 75 69 66 63 62 58 50 41 33 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 84 83 74 68 64 63 59 51 42 34 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS