* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052024 08/16/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 85 84 83 82 76 76 73 70 64 53 44 39 38 32 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 85 84 83 82 76 76 73 70 64 53 44 39 38 32 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 84 83 81 78 72 71 70 67 55 42 35 30 28 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 16 21 24 17 14 8 14 16 25 33 46 55 53 43 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 13 10 5 4 0 1 2 7 6 6 0 -10 -11 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 305 297 249 255 257 247 225 228 227 245 264 287 308 319 323 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.4 27.7 24.5 17.8 14.8 13.9 13.2 14.0 14.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 150 146 144 141 143 135 106 79 75 75 74 73 74 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.3 -50.1 -50.1 -50.3 -49.8 -49.8 -49.2 -49.2 -49.5 -50.3 -50.0 -51.1 -50.8 -50.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.5 0.9 0.5 -0.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 6 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 47 44 43 45 44 49 53 58 58 63 70 75 75 76 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 34 34 35 37 34 35 34 34 33 27 22 18 14 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 50 43 38 59 40 36 1 -30 -44 -24 40 61 12 -51 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 60 89 59 22 19 12 35 27 66 36 44 25 2 0 2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 33 32 26 28 16 8 6 16 27 73 29 44 74 122 91 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1049 1096 1084 1065 1052 999 860 660 395 134 462 1211 983 320 0 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.9 30.0 31.1 31.9 32.6 33.8 35.5 38.0 41.8 45.6 49.1 51.8 53.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.8 66.1 65.4 65.1 64.9 64.5 64.0 62.7 59.8 54.5 46.7 36.7 25.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 10 8 7 8 11 18 24 29 33 36 34 29 27 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 19 21 26 30 20 25 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 13 CX,CY: 7/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 3. 3. -0. -6. -13. -19. -26. -29. -32. -32. -33. -33. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -5. -3. -1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 9. 12. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 1. -1. -2. -5. -15. -22. -29. -34. -43. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -3. -9. -9. -12. -15. -21. -32. -41. -46. -47. -53. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 28.9 66.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052024 ERNESTO 08/16/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.24 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 584.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.32 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.36 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.71 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 10.1% 7.0% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 1.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 3.8% 2.6% 2.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.3% 2.4% 1.3% 1.0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052024 ERNESTO 08/16/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052024 ERNESTO 08/16/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 9( 18) 8( 25) 5( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 85 84 83 82 76 76 73 70 64 53 44 39 38 32 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 83 82 81 75 75 72 69 63 52 43 38 37 31 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 80 79 73 73 70 67 61 50 41 36 35 29 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 74 68 68 65 62 56 45 36 31 30 24 DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 60 60 57 54 48 37 28 23 22 16 DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 85 76 70 67 63 63 60 57 51 40 31 26 25 19 DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 85 84 75 69 65 65 62 59 53 42 33 28 27 21 DIS DIS