* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052024 08/16/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 85 86 84 82 78 78 79 75 70 63 52 44 45 42 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 85 86 84 82 78 78 79 75 70 63 52 44 45 42 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 86 86 84 81 74 72 71 70 62 49 39 34 32 32 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 26 16 18 21 13 9 14 17 21 30 32 33 31 31 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 8 11 13 8 5 0 -2 2 7 4 5 1 3 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 292 302 299 258 261 218 217 206 239 233 262 278 293 296 297 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.5 22.0 15.5 17.2 15.3 14.3 14.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 154 152 148 144 143 141 134 92 76 79 76 73 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.5 -50.2 -50.1 -50.1 -50.0 -49.8 -49.1 -49.1 -48.7 -49.7 -49.6 -50.2 -49.4 -46.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.0 1.7 2.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 48 47 44 44 47 45 52 55 57 60 64 67 57 52 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 33 36 36 35 35 36 36 35 35 31 26 22 21 17 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 32 43 40 34 41 24 7 -27 -46 -28 21 89 126 128 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 55 71 34 8 23 -7 71 38 48 55 43 28 32 20 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 21 30 39 29 33 14 10 12 29 46 47 50 52 45 61 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 893 1015 1123 1099 1084 1062 945 786 533 333 139 820 1422 776 272 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 28.6 29.5 30.5 31.4 32.8 34.4 36.7 39.9 43.6 47.5 50.2 51.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.5 66.8 66.2 65.7 65.2 64.7 64.4 63.2 61.3 57.3 50.8 41.9 31.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 8 10 15 21 27 31 33 32 26 23 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 21 19 20 22 29 20 30 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 12 CX,CY: 5/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 3. 0. -5. -11. -17. -24. -28. -31. -33. -34. -35. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -7. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. -0. -1. -7. -15. -21. -23. -29. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. -1. -3. -7. -7. -6. -10. -15. -22. -33. -41. -40. -43. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 27.6 67.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052024 ERNESTO 08/16/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.23 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 620.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.29 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.36 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.84 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 9.4% 6.6% 5.4% 0.0% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 1.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 3.7% 2.5% 2.0% 0.1% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.9% 2.8% 2.2% 1.5% .5% 1.2% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052024 ERNESTO 08/16/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052024 ERNESTO 08/16/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 10( 19) 8( 25) 6( 30) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 85 86 84 82 78 78 79 75 70 63 52 44 45 42 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 85 83 81 77 77 78 74 69 62 51 43 44 41 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 79 77 73 73 74 70 65 58 47 39 40 37 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 73 69 69 70 66 61 54 43 35 36 33 DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 62 62 63 59 54 47 36 28 29 26 DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 85 76 70 67 64 64 65 61 56 49 38 30 31 28 DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 85 86 77 71 67 67 68 64 59 52 41 33 34 31 DIS DIS