* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052024 08/16/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 88 88 87 84 81 81 80 75 62 49 40 39 41 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 88 88 88 87 84 81 81 80 75 62 49 40 39 41 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 88 89 88 87 83 78 76 76 71 56 43 36 33 33 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 22 28 15 15 15 13 8 12 14 20 26 46 53 49 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 5 11 11 6 0 -2 1 5 10 11 0 -7 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 320 291 304 297 267 254 215 211 234 239 245 266 288 301 307 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.6 28.4 28.4 27.9 24.8 18.6 14.3 14.7 13.9 14.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 153 153 145 142 143 138 107 81 75 75 73 74 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.5 -50.3 -49.9 -49.9 -49.9 -49.6 -49.2 -48.9 -48.7 -48.7 -49.2 -48.9 -49.3 -48.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 51 48 46 42 45 44 54 56 59 60 61 68 66 66 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 35 35 36 37 37 37 38 38 33 27 23 20 20 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 31 36 46 39 39 25 25 -9 -44 -66 -32 23 54 86 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 133 87 48 65 42 10 24 35 51 80 56 71 -6 1 -24 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 24 34 32 20 23 11 12 28 35 56 6 20 66 48 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 757 881 1004 1097 1078 1061 1001 846 631 417 178 390 1162 1154 527 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.6 28.6 29.5 30.4 32.2 33.7 35.6 38.4 41.7 45.3 48.6 51.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.3 67.7 67.1 66.6 66.0 65.0 64.7 64.1 62.3 59.4 55.0 47.6 37.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 12 18 22 27 33 33 30 28 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 23 21 20 20 29 20 26 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 12 CX,CY: 4/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -10. -16. -22. -28. -30. -32. -33. -33. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -5. -6. -8. -6. -3. -1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. -1. -8. -17. -24. -27. -28. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -4. -5. -10. -23. -36. -45. -46. -44. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 26.6 68.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052024 ERNESTO 08/16/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.35 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 620.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.28 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.48 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.86 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 13.3% 9.2% 7.1% 5.8% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.5% 6.0% 3.7% 3.1% 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 9.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.8% 6.6% 4.4% 3.7% 2.3% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 13.0% 9.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 10.4% 7.8% 5.7% 3.3% 2.1% 1.6% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052024 ERNESTO 08/16/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052024 ERNESTO 08/16/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 11( 20) 10( 28) 9( 34) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 88 88 88 87 84 81 81 80 75 62 49 40 39 41 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 84 84 83 80 77 77 76 71 58 45 36 35 37 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 81 80 77 74 74 73 68 55 42 33 32 34 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 74 71 68 68 67 62 49 36 27 26 28 DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 63 60 60 59 54 41 28 19 18 20 DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 88 79 73 70 68 65 65 64 59 46 33 24 23 25 DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 88 88 79 73 69 66 66 65 60 47 34 25 24 26 DIS DIS