* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052024 08/15/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 81 83 85 86 84 82 82 74 68 56 47 44 47 49 43 V (KT) LAND 75 78 81 83 85 86 84 82 82 74 68 56 47 44 47 49 43 V (KT) LGEM 75 76 78 79 80 81 77 74 73 70 62 48 39 36 36 35 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 20 22 15 20 10 7 13 16 18 22 27 43 44 48 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 8 10 9 6 1 2 -1 2 7 7 7 1 -4 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 340 319 292 308 293 258 230 217 205 235 212 253 280 295 307 308 303 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.5 28.5 28.0 26.9 21.8 15.9 16.8 13.3 13.8 14.0 13.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 155 154 150 143 144 138 126 91 76 78 74 73 72 71 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.6 -50.6 -50.3 -50.0 -49.8 -50.0 -49.7 -49.1 -48.8 -48.6 -49.2 -49.5 -50.4 -50.2 -49.8 -47.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 54 50 48 47 42 46 46 54 56 59 62 62 70 73 78 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 33 34 35 38 36 35 37 34 34 29 25 22 22 20 11 850 MB ENV VOR 17 31 35 44 50 40 46 30 27 -6 -29 -42 -29 53 110 92 88 200 MB DIV 108 113 73 66 84 5 30 9 67 14 98 66 36 22 21 -4 27 700-850 TADV 19 18 28 24 29 28 12 4 13 27 39 23 44 11 104 123 118 LAND (KM) 620 735 851 972 1086 1037 1009 903 738 497 287 43 715 1405 838 290 8 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.6 27.6 28.5 29.4 31.2 32.8 34.6 36.9 39.9 43.5 47.0 50.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.1 68.6 68.2 67.5 66.8 65.9 65.3 64.9 64.0 62.0 58.5 52.3 43.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 11 14 19 25 31 33 33 30 25 22 HEAT CONTENT 37 31 25 22 21 21 29 21 32 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -5. -9. -14. -19. -21. -22. -22. -21. -22. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 14. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 4. 2. 4. -1. -1. -10. -16. -20. -20. -22. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 9. 7. 7. -1. -7. -19. -28. -31. -28. -26. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 25.6 69.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052024 ERNESTO 08/15/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.42 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 530.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.38 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.54 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.30 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.88 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 14.6% 9.6% 7.5% 6.5% 9.4% 7.8% 0.0% Logistic: 7.1% 9.3% 5.6% 5.9% 1.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 8.0% 5.2% 4.5% 2.8% 3.6% 2.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 26.0% 40.0% 23.0% 12.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 15.8% 24.0% 14.1% 8.2% 4.4% 2.3% 1.3% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052024 ERNESTO 08/15/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052024 ERNESTO 08/15/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 8( 13) 10( 21) 10( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 0( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 78 81 83 85 86 84 82 82 74 68 56 47 44 47 49 43 18HR AGO 75 74 77 79 81 82 80 78 78 70 64 52 43 40 43 45 39 12HR AGO 75 72 71 73 75 76 74 72 72 64 58 46 37 34 37 39 33 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 67 68 66 64 64 56 50 38 29 26 29 31 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT