* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052024 08/15/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 84 86 89 89 90 88 85 78 69 61 52 48 50 53 56 V (KT) LAND 75 79 84 86 89 89 90 88 85 78 69 61 52 48 50 53 56 V (KT) LGEM 75 78 81 84 86 88 86 79 77 73 67 54 44 39 39 39 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 8 19 24 19 12 7 12 14 17 24 28 40 43 32 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 4 5 8 8 3 1 -1 2 5 5 8 0 -1 -2 7 SHEAR DIR 316 329 305 294 303 264 233 246 175 198 199 230 255 277 288 285 251 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.6 28.3 28.2 27.6 23.8 18.6 14.5 14.6 14.1 14.6 13.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 155 154 155 153 145 140 140 134 101 81 75 75 74 73 72 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.6 -50.7 -50.7 -50.5 -49.9 -49.9 -49.4 -49.5 -48.8 -49.0 -49.4 -49.6 -49.0 -50.8 -50.2 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.4 -0.3 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 60 55 51 50 43 43 42 46 52 59 62 67 65 55 43 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 32 33 33 35 37 39 37 37 35 32 31 27 23 22 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR -2 22 40 40 50 52 64 45 46 25 5 21 49 107 94 74 81 200 MB DIV 108 107 106 58 72 51 10 -2 37 40 71 45 85 68 50 6 21 700-850 TADV 19 24 19 25 30 24 15 5 8 17 18 37 51 43 39 16 11 LAND (KM) 519 620 726 852 978 1062 1023 972 816 622 365 177 381 1119 1128 490 166 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.6 26.6 27.6 28.5 30.4 32.1 33.6 35.6 38.2 41.7 45.3 48.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.3 69.0 68.8 68.1 67.4 66.2 65.5 65.4 64.7 63.3 61.0 55.8 47.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 8 9 12 17 22 29 33 34 32 27 24 HEAT CONTENT 44 36 33 25 22 20 27 22 25 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 12 CX,CY: -2/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 747 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. -0. -4. -8. -12. -17. -21. -21. -22. -22. -23. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 13. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 6. 5. 2. -3. -6. -13. -18. -18. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 11. 14. 14. 15. 13. 10. 3. -6. -14. -23. -27. -25. -22. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 24.5 69.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052024 ERNESTO 08/15/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.51 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 494.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.42 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.55 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.32 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.90 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 17.9% 12.0% 9.2% 7.7% 11.2% 9.5% 0.0% Logistic: 10.8% 14.0% 9.0% 7.1% 2.0% 2.9% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 12.1% 0.7% 1.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 12.4% 10.9% 7.5% 5.7% 3.3% 4.7% 3.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 28.0% 53.0% 34.0% 19.0% 7.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 20.2% 31.9% 20.7% 12.3% 5.1% 4.3% 2.2% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052024 ERNESTO 08/15/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052024 ERNESTO 08/15/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 9( 14) 11( 23) 11( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 1( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 79 84 86 89 89 90 88 85 78 69 61 52 48 50 53 56 18HR AGO 75 74 79 81 84 84 85 83 80 73 64 56 47 43 45 48 51 12HR AGO 75 72 71 73 76 76 77 75 72 65 56 48 39 35 37 40 43 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 68 68 69 67 64 57 48 40 31 27 29 32 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 79 84 75 69 65 66 64 61 54 45 37 28 24 26 29 32