* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052024 08/15/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 84 89 91 92 91 90 88 85 76 69 58 53 47 45 46 V (KT) LAND 75 79 84 89 91 92 91 90 88 85 76 69 58 53 47 45 46 V (KT) LGEM 75 80 84 88 91 92 88 83 79 76 72 62 49 40 36 33 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 11 11 16 16 17 11 14 18 21 21 29 35 47 58 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 3 5 9 9 7 4 1 0 0 10 6 8 3 -7 -9 SHEAR DIR 288 311 335 342 307 303 260 226 213 195 229 227 270 294 312 317 312 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.6 27.9 27.7 27.1 22.4 16.8 15.5 16.7 15.2 14.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 155 154 154 153 145 136 134 128 94 77 75 78 76 75 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -50.4 -50.3 -50.1 -50.0 -49.0 -48.9 -48.7 -49.5 -49.6 -50.5 -52.3 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.4 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 6 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 60 62 58 51 46 43 46 47 53 56 59 63 61 61 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 30 33 34 36 35 35 36 37 35 34 30 26 22 18 13 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -8 12 30 36 53 36 41 19 12 -9 -21 -4 -35 -28 3 15 200 MB DIV 107 91 89 79 56 75 11 42 18 80 27 66 51 50 20 -9 -18 700-850 TADV 20 19 28 23 30 34 28 18 7 17 25 46 45 71 81 84 66 LAND (KM) 413 538 635 738 842 1086 1046 988 879 736 511 360 89 654 1319 1010 372 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 24.5 25.7 26.6 27.5 29.4 31.2 32.9 34.8 37.0 39.8 43.0 46.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.1 69.1 69.0 68.6 68.2 66.8 65.8 65.5 65.0 63.9 61.9 57.9 51.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 11 10 9 9 11 14 19 25 28 29 31 33 34 HEAT CONTENT 41 42 36 32 26 21 20 28 18 27 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 13 CX,CY: -4/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -7. -11. -15. -20. -22. -22. -23. -25. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 8. 9. 4. 3. -4. -10. -16. -21. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 16. 17. 16. 15. 13. 10. 1. -6. -17. -22. -28. -30. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 23.3 69.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052024 ERNESTO 08/15/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.57 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 473.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.44 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.52 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.32 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.86 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.5% 20.9% 12.5% 9.5% 7.7% 11.4% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 7.1% 14.8% 9.6% 7.0% 1.8% 4.3% 1.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 9.8% 1.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 10.5% 12.4% 7.8% 5.7% 3.3% 5.3% 3.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 37.0% 67.0% 50.0% 37.0% 8.0% 16.0% 4.0% 3.0% SDCON: 23.7% 39.7% 28.9% 21.3% 5.6% 10.6% 3.8% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052024 ERNESTO 08/15/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052024 ERNESTO 08/15/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 9( 14) 12( 24) 13( 34) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 79 84 89 91 92 91 90 88 85 76 69 58 53 47 45 46 18HR AGO 75 74 79 84 86 87 86 85 83 80 71 64 53 48 42 40 41 12HR AGO 75 72 71 76 78 79 78 77 75 72 63 56 45 40 34 32 33 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 67 68 67 66 64 61 52 45 34 29 23 21 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 79 84 75 69 65 64 63 61 58 49 42 31 26 20 18 19