* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052024 08/15/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 79 83 87 88 88 89 84 82 73 66 60 54 48 41 37 V (KT) LAND 70 74 79 83 87 88 88 89 84 82 73 66 60 54 48 41 37 V (KT) LGEM 70 73 77 80 83 86 86 82 77 73 70 63 52 43 37 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 13 14 10 19 14 14 11 14 23 21 27 33 41 37 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 1 3 6 16 16 7 6 1 4 7 7 4 -3 3 10 SHEAR DIR 260 275 305 340 324 312 257 277 224 205 224 228 260 279 304 310 277 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.3 27.9 27.8 24.3 19.0 14.2 15.8 14.5 14.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 154 154 155 152 153 151 141 136 136 104 81 74 76 74 73 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 -51.0 -51.4 -50.7 -50.2 -50.0 -49.7 -49.1 -49.4 -49.6 -50.3 -50.4 -50.8 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 5 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 59 61 64 58 49 42 45 47 52 55 60 62 65 64 56 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 29 32 33 33 34 37 35 37 34 34 33 28 23 15 7 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -15 0 16 39 57 48 42 32 25 -4 -26 17 0 36 82 83 200 MB DIV 112 114 89 89 84 93 41 4 7 39 8 56 14 53 22 29 46 700-850 TADV 19 14 24 28 25 30 29 33 8 9 13 35 69 54 41 -19 -81 LAND (KM) 331 444 541 643 750 996 1064 1010 978 797 583 379 187 322 990 1379 764 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 23.6 24.7 25.8 26.8 28.7 30.5 32.2 33.7 35.8 38.5 41.7 45.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.7 69.0 69.2 68.9 68.7 67.4 66.1 65.6 65.3 64.7 63.6 60.6 55.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 10 10 8 9 13 16 23 27 30 30 29 28 HEAT CONTENT 44 42 41 35 32 21 19 26 22 23 41 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 14 CX,CY: -6/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -3. -7. -10. -14. -17. -17. -17. -18. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 9. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 10. 7. 10. 5. 3. 0. -6. -14. -23. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 18. 18. 19. 14. 13. 3. -4. -10. -16. -22. -29. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 22.4 68.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052024 ERNESTO 08/15/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.60 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 416.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.50 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.58 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.38 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.86 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.3% 32.4% 20.0% 11.3% 10.3% 12.2% 10.3% 10.4% Logistic: 8.6% 16.4% 10.4% 9.1% 2.5% 4.8% 1.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 10.4% 2.2% 3.2% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 11.4% 17.0% 11.2% 7.4% 4.5% 5.7% 3.9% 3.5% DTOPS: 19.0% 76.0% 51.0% 29.0% 7.0% 36.0% 15.0% 3.0% SDCON: 15.2% 46.5% 31.1% 18.2% 5.7% 20.8% 9.4% 3.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052024 ERNESTO 08/15/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052024 ERNESTO 08/15/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 7( 11) 10( 20) 11( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 0( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 74 79 83 87 88 88 89 84 82 73 66 60 54 48 41 37 18HR AGO 70 69 74 78 82 83 83 84 79 77 68 61 55 49 43 36 32 12HR AGO 70 67 66 70 74 75 75 76 71 69 60 53 47 41 35 28 24 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 64 65 65 66 61 59 50 43 37 31 25 18 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT