* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052024 08/14/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 74 79 83 88 90 86 84 79 77 67 62 56 53 49 51 V (KT) LAND 65 69 74 79 83 88 90 86 84 79 77 67 62 54 51 47 49 V (KT) LGEM 65 68 71 75 79 85 85 82 77 72 69 65 55 41 40 37 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 12 16 12 15 15 19 13 17 23 28 37 40 51 53 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 3 13 14 7 7 7 3 7 4 1 -2 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 295 260 279 314 330 300 312 278 241 263 212 240 233 255 270 284 282 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.0 27.8 25.9 20.2 15.9 14.6 12.1 12.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 156 154 154 154 153 153 146 138 136 117 85 75 74 71 71 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -50.5 -50.5 -50.5 -50.3 -49.9 -49.7 -50.2 -50.9 -52.7 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.3 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 9 9 8 6 6 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 58 59 61 62 52 46 43 50 52 60 68 71 72 71 75 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 28 29 30 33 35 34 35 35 36 34 35 32 28 22 16 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -35 -26 -4 16 32 48 29 34 13 20 12 44 81 99 111 118 200 MB DIV 100 107 107 91 67 47 78 5 44 -6 82 50 56 47 65 34 52 700-850 TADV 12 17 18 21 29 28 25 27 20 13 21 27 42 44 55 67 72 LAND (KM) 231 321 416 534 619 860 1108 1046 979 869 644 390 196 2 584 1204 1054 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 22.2 23.3 24.4 25.5 27.5 29.4 31.2 32.7 34.7 37.4 40.7 44.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.0 68.5 69.0 69.0 69.0 67.9 66.5 65.8 65.7 65.5 64.9 62.7 58.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 12 10 9 9 12 16 21 25 27 28 27 27 HEAT CONTENT 62 46 41 43 36 24 20 20 28 23 29 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 14 CX,CY: -8/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -10. -9. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 9. 8. 10. 6. 6. 1. -4. -13. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 23. 25. 21. 19. 14. 12. 2. -3. -9. -12. -16. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 21.1 68.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052024 ERNESTO 08/14/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.62 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 383.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.53 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.57 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.43 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.86 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 34.7% 21.7% 13.7% 12.1% 13.0% 11.4% 11.3% Logistic: 5.8% 17.1% 10.5% 9.7% 2.9% 6.3% 2.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 4.2% 0.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 7.4% 17.5% 11.1% 7.9% 5.0% 6.5% 4.7% 3.8% DTOPS: 27.0% 61.0% 36.0% 18.0% 7.0% 28.0% 31.0% 10.0% SDCON: 17.2% 39.2% 23.5% 12.9% 6.0% 17.2% 17.8% 6.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052024 ERNESTO 08/14/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052024 ERNESTO 08/14/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 5( 7) 9( 15) 11( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 8( 10) 4( 13) 0( 13) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 69 74 79 83 88 90 86 84 79 77 67 62 54 51 47 49 18HR AGO 65 64 69 74 78 83 85 81 79 74 72 62 57 49 46 42 44 12HR AGO 65 62 61 66 70 75 77 73 71 66 64 54 49 41 38 34 36 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 59 64 66 62 60 55 53 43 38 30 27 23 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT