* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052024 08/14/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 67 71 74 80 82 85 86 82 80 74 66 60 58 57 59 V (KT) LAND 60 63 67 71 74 80 82 85 86 82 80 74 66 60 51 51 53 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 65 68 71 76 81 82 79 75 73 71 62 50 41 40 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 12 15 15 9 26 12 8 9 11 27 32 48 53 44 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 -1 2 7 8 13 9 8 8 6 6 -1 -3 3 -4 SHEAR DIR 289 291 256 275 308 306 314 292 287 247 205 209 218 240 252 252 229 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.1 27.9 27.5 21.0 17.2 12.2 11.1 12.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 154 156 154 155 154 153 150 138 136 133 87 78 73 73 74 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.4 -50.8 -50.9 -50.2 -50.0 -50.0 -49.9 -49.2 -49.3 -49.2 -49.2 -47.7 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.1 1.9 1.2 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 61 59 60 61 60 49 42 44 48 52 55 60 63 58 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 28 28 29 31 33 36 38 37 37 36 35 33 30 27 24 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -28 -32 -30 0 42 58 56 60 42 52 26 19 52 127 170 227 200 MB DIV 77 108 106 88 79 102 75 33 -7 23 59 37 48 41 50 44 67 700-850 TADV 3 18 17 21 20 23 41 24 15 7 11 19 20 21 -37 -75 -56 LAND (KM) 154 234 322 437 534 738 996 1078 1001 923 773 560 274 48 373 1124 882 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 21.1 22.3 23.5 24.7 26.6 28.5 30.4 32.4 34.2 35.9 38.7 42.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.2 68.0 68.7 69.0 69.3 68.6 67.1 66.0 65.6 65.4 65.0 63.7 61.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 12 18 24 30 34 36 36 HEAT CONTENT 65 62 45 42 41 32 20 19 27 21 23 33 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -3. -5. -6. -4. -2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 10. 11. 8. 6. 1. -3. -7. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 20. 22. 25. 26. 22. 20. 14. 6. -0. -2. -3. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.9 67.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052024 ERNESTO 08/14/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.61 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.33 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.21 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 338.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.58 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.55 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.50 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.84 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 34.8% 20.2% 9.9% 7.8% 15.7% 12.3% 13.4% Logistic: 4.2% 14.0% 8.0% 7.0% 2.1% 6.7% 2.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 16.4% 9.6% 5.7% 3.3% 7.5% 5.1% 4.5% DTOPS: 8.0% 26.0% 12.0% 7.0% 3.0% 19.0% 21.0% 8.0% SDCON: 6.3% 21.2% 10.8% 6.3% 3.1% 13.2% 13.0% 6.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052024 ERNESTO 08/14/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052024 ERNESTO 08/14/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 5( 8) 7( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 63 67 71 74 80 82 85 86 82 80 74 66 60 51 51 53 18HR AGO 60 59 63 67 70 76 78 81 82 78 76 70 62 56 47 47 49 12HR AGO 60 57 56 60 63 69 71 74 75 71 69 63 55 49 40 40 42 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 53 59 61 64 65 61 59 53 45 39 30 30 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT