* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052024 08/14/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 72 78 83 91 95 99 98 94 88 80 76 68 60 54 51 V (KT) LAND 60 66 72 78 83 91 95 99 98 94 88 80 76 68 60 54 51 V (KT) LGEM 60 65 70 74 78 86 94 97 94 88 83 81 79 71 56 45 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 11 8 16 13 15 14 17 4 7 12 16 22 31 52 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 0 -3 1 7 10 3 7 4 2 9 9 6 6 -7 SHEAR DIR 286 296 303 278 285 334 317 301 281 245 239 178 213 213 244 249 255 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.0 28.1 28.1 24.1 18.0 14.7 15.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 153 154 154 153 153 153 151 146 137 139 140 103 78 71 71 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.2 -51.6 -50.8 -50.9 -50.3 -49.9 -49.7 -49.6 -49.1 -48.9 -48.5 -48.5 -47.8 -48.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.7 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 9 9 7 7 6 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 63 61 59 61 63 54 47 43 45 51 60 60 58 58 59 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 27 27 27 31 33 37 38 38 37 35 37 36 32 28 25 850 MB ENV VOR 11 -15 -27 -32 -37 4 45 69 61 63 42 37 30 15 7 47 -59 200 MB DIV 50 58 93 91 83 71 74 88 -11 24 0 71 38 88 58 8 -16 700-850 TADV 0 2 9 6 14 22 32 23 19 10 4 15 20 29 -14 34 -6 LAND (KM) 62 165 222 307 394 572 795 1010 1058 1022 921 773 577 406 141 290 659 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.1 23.1 25.0 26.9 28.6 30.6 32.7 34.6 36.7 38.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.0 67.0 68.0 68.5 69.0 69.1 68.1 67.0 66.1 65.2 64.5 63.7 62.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 11 15 23 24 19 16 HEAT CONTENT 64 67 59 48 40 40 27 21 18 22 17 28 34 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -5. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. 6. 9. 14. 17. 16. 14. 11. 12. 9. 3. -3. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 13. 10. 6. 2. -1. -4. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 23. 31. 35. 39. 38. 34. 28. 20. 16. 8. 0. -6. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.0 66.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052024 ERNESTO 08/14/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 11.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.68 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.36 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 3.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 354.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.56 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.48 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.51 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.90 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 4.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.2% 45.8% 32.2% 22.7% 17.5% 27.4% 17.5% 16.4% Logistic: 11.3% 26.0% 17.6% 14.0% 4.8% 10.5% 5.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 11.7% 4.1% 5.0% 1.6% 0.8% 2.2% 1.8% 0.0% Consensus: 12.7% 25.3% 18.3% 12.8% 7.7% 13.4% 8.1% 5.6% DTOPS: 20.0% 36.0% 16.0% 10.0% 5.0% 25.0% 29.0% 28.0% SDCON: 16.3% 30.6% 17.1% 11.4% 6.3% 19.2% 18.5% 16.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052024 ERNESTO 08/14/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052024 ERNESTO 08/14/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 9( 13) 12( 23) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 4( 4) 8( 12) 7( 18) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 66 72 78 83 91 95 99 98 94 88 80 76 68 60 54 51 18HR AGO 60 59 65 71 76 84 88 92 91 87 81 73 69 61 53 47 44 12HR AGO 60 57 56 62 67 75 79 83 82 78 72 64 60 52 44 38 35 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 55 63 67 71 70 66 60 52 48 40 32 26 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT