* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052024 08/14/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 69 76 83 92 96 95 97 93 88 85 82 76 72 61 60 V (KT) LAND 55 68 76 83 89 98 103 102 103 100 94 91 88 82 78 67 66 V (KT) LGEM 55 67 74 80 85 93 96 97 97 94 89 86 86 81 64 50 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 12 16 12 7 21 11 12 13 12 13 13 24 25 30 41 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -4 -4 -1 0 -4 7 9 5 3 1 0 5 10 7 8 -1 SHEAR DIR 313 268 299 311 298 322 326 328 286 269 219 225 231 240 250 256 254 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.4 26.4 20.8 16.4 14.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 156 156 154 154 153 153 154 150 146 142 140 144 121 85 74 71 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.0 -50.8 -50.2 -50.1 -49.8 -49.6 -49.3 -48.8 -48.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.1 0.8 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.8 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 60 63 65 62 51 44 48 53 58 54 55 53 56 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 24 25 26 29 31 30 34 35 35 37 39 39 39 33 32 850 MB ENV VOR 20 1 -24 -43 -43 -23 34 59 35 28 17 26 24 16 -2 20 72 200 MB DIV 68 54 49 78 72 73 96 66 38 11 34 38 91 95 58 39 20 700-850 TADV -11 -2 2 5 5 14 17 22 21 17 8 12 33 29 -2 -29 -46 LAND (KM) 0 104 201 288 357 542 732 955 1090 1041 1002 826 633 443 325 72 446 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 19.4 20.3 21.4 22.4 24.4 26.3 28.1 30.1 31.9 33.5 35.6 38.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.7 65.8 66.8 67.5 68.1 68.7 68.3 67.2 66.1 65.4 65.1 64.5 63.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 11 10 10 11 10 9 10 12 15 19 21 21 20 HEAT CONTENT 66 62 68 60 47 44 30 21 18 18 22 26 44 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 46.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 14. 16. 16. 18. 19. 18. 17. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 16. 12. 7. 3. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -12. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 21. 28. 37. 41. 40. 42. 38. 33. 30. 27. 21. 17. 6. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.4 64.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052024 ERNESTO 08/14/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 14.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.74 6.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.39 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 4.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 315.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.60 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.43 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.58 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.96 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 5.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.2% 54.8% 39.4% 25.8% 18.6% 40.6% 31.7% 21.4% Logistic: 16.9% 46.1% 33.5% 21.6% 9.2% 20.6% 13.6% 6.0% Bayesian: 13.6% 24.7% 14.5% 5.9% 2.5% 3.7% 1.9% 0.0% Consensus: 16.5% 41.9% 29.1% 17.7% 10.1% 21.7% 15.7% 9.1% DTOPS: 33.0% 61.0% 35.0% 30.0% 10.0% 22.0% 45.0% 23.0% SDCON: 24.7% 51.4% 32.0% 23.8% 10.0% 21.8% 30.3% 16.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052024 ERNESTO 08/14/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052024 ERNESTO 08/14/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 5( 5) 11( 15) 21( 33) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 3( 3) 25( 27) 11( 35) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 68 76 83 89 98 103 102 103 100 94 91 88 82 78 67 66 18HR AGO 55 54 62 69 75 84 89 88 89 86 80 77 74 68 64 53 52 12HR AGO 55 52 51 58 64 73 78 77 78 75 69 66 63 57 53 42 41 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 51 60 65 64 65 62 56 53 50 44 40 29 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT