* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052024 08/13/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 65 74 82 92 96 96 91 86 83 79 76 68 64 57 51 V (KT) LAND 50 57 65 74 82 92 96 96 91 86 83 79 76 68 64 57 51 V (KT) LGEM 50 57 64 71 78 87 93 92 88 86 86 86 85 82 72 57 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 11 15 13 17 14 11 10 13 12 17 20 29 42 49 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 -4 -2 0 -2 11 11 10 6 0 3 6 7 6 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 343 321 278 287 298 283 324 289 311 274 248 255 244 256 242 236 254 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.1 28.1 27.5 23.8 19.0 14.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 156 158 154 154 154 154 152 148 146 138 139 132 100 82 74 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.1 -51.8 -51.2 -51.1 -50.3 -50.5 -49.8 -49.5 -48.9 -49.2 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.8 1.3 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.0 1.4 0.7 1.3 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 10 9 7 7 6 6 7 5 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 62 62 60 60 65 69 60 55 51 55 57 63 67 65 64 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 24 27 29 31 33 34 33 34 35 37 39 39 40 38 33 850 MB ENV VOR 26 19 3 -25 -35 -37 1 39 42 26 33 18 22 38 51 80 92 200 MB DIV 79 86 80 69 107 88 97 80 77 10 53 21 111 79 102 71 23 700-850 TADV -13 -13 -8 -2 1 13 34 25 31 18 12 14 33 44 13 -46 -63 LAND (KM) 65 1 89 191 272 456 669 881 1101 1068 1048 951 764 543 358 199 322 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.4 19.2 20.2 21.2 23.5 25.7 27.6 29.5 31.1 32.5 34.2 36.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.5 64.6 65.7 66.6 67.5 68.4 68.5 67.7 66.5 65.6 65.0 64.7 64.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 13 13 11 11 10 10 8 8 10 12 16 21 27 30 HEAT CONTENT 78 66 62 67 62 43 33 23 20 17 21 17 24 22 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 16 CX,CY: -13/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 52.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 3. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 12. 13. 15. 17. 19. 16. 17. 13. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 13. 19. 18. 14. 9. 3. -2. -6. -9. -12. -12. -13. -13. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 24. 32. 42. 46. 46. 41. 36. 33. 29. 26. 18. 14. 7. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.6 63.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052024 ERNESTO 08/13/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 13.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.69 6.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 67.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.43 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 279.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.64 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.52 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.65 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.98 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 5.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.0% 54.6% 38.6% 23.8% 16.8% 38.0% 34.1% 21.8% Logistic: 13.3% 44.0% 27.7% 16.6% 7.3% 21.7% 14.3% 9.9% Bayesian: 7.8% 25.0% 11.1% 3.0% 1.8% 2.8% 1.5% 0.1% Consensus: 12.7% 41.2% 25.8% 14.5% 8.6% 20.8% 16.6% 10.6% DTOPS: 14.0% 55.0% 25.0% 17.0% 4.0% 15.0% 32.0% 21.0% SDCON: 13.3% 48.1% 25.4% 15.7% 6.3% 17.9% 24.3% 15.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052024 ERNESTO 08/13/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052024 ERNESTO 08/13/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 8( 10) 13( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 2( 2) 8( 10) 5( 14) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 57 65 74 82 92 96 96 91 86 83 79 76 68 64 57 51 18HR AGO 50 49 57 66 74 84 88 88 83 78 75 71 68 60 56 49 43 12HR AGO 50 47 46 55 63 73 77 77 72 67 64 60 57 49 45 38 32 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 48 58 62 62 57 52 49 45 42 34 30 23 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT