* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052024 08/13/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 53 61 69 81 90 90 90 90 88 88 84 81 77 69 64 V (KT) LAND 40 45 53 61 69 81 90 90 90 90 88 88 84 81 77 69 64 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 53 59 71 82 86 87 89 90 91 90 88 84 70 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 6 8 15 4 17 12 15 15 9 9 11 23 26 48 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 -4 -4 0 0 12 7 5 2 1 1 4 9 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 334 10 1 310 310 298 327 333 314 256 264 222 205 223 240 251 254 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.0 28.0 27.9 22.0 17.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 163 158 156 154 155 154 152 148 146 146 137 139 138 89 75 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.3 -51.6 -51.2 -51.8 -51.1 -50.5 -50.1 -49.9 -49.5 -49.4 -48.9 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 7 6 5 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 63 61 62 65 60 50 44 45 52 57 62 63 57 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 22 25 26 29 29 30 33 34 37 37 38 39 38 36 850 MB ENV VOR 35 26 24 12 -12 -35 -19 41 63 65 66 54 47 39 40 36 92 200 MB DIV 86 87 86 77 56 75 73 91 77 47 17 41 17 47 103 48 23 700-850 TADV -10 -13 -16 -8 -1 4 16 26 38 19 11 8 6 15 28 8 8 LAND (KM) 19 53 24 58 147 324 526 751 1018 1143 1136 1092 911 732 538 337 88 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.3 18.0 18.9 19.8 22.0 24.2 26.2 28.4 30.0 31.2 32.7 34.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.0 63.3 64.7 65.6 66.6 67.9 68.5 67.9 66.6 65.5 64.7 64.4 64.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 13 13 12 10 11 11 8 7 8 12 15 17 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 57 80 72 63 67 52 45 28 20 17 16 20 17 33 24 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 50.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 15. 17. 17. 18. 18. 17. 15. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 11. 12. 16. 17. 20. 19. 19. 19. 16. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 18. 14. 8. 3. -2. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 13. 21. 29. 41. 50. 50. 50. 50. 48. 48. 44. 41. 37. 29. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.6 62.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052024 ERNESTO 08/13/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 11.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.75 6.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 67.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.44 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 194.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.49 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.78 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.98 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 5.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 54.6% 37.1% 22.8% 13.3% 36.4% 32.5% 26.6% Logistic: 26.0% 56.3% 41.9% 22.0% 12.4% 20.0% 14.5% 7.3% Bayesian: 8.1% 43.5% 31.1% 8.8% 5.8% 13.5% 7.8% 0.4% Consensus: 14.2% 51.5% 36.7% 17.8% 10.5% 23.3% 18.3% 11.4% DTOPS: 7.0% 30.0% 10.0% 6.0% 5.0% 14.0% 10.0% 15.0% SDCON: 10.6% 40.7% 23.3% 11.9% 7.7% 18.6% 14.1% 13.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052024 ERNESTO 08/13/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052024 ERNESTO 08/13/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 8( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 17( 21) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 45 53 61 69 81 90 90 90 90 88 88 84 81 77 69 64 18HR AGO 40 39 47 55 63 75 84 84 84 84 82 82 78 75 71 63 58 12HR AGO 40 37 36 44 52 64 73 73 73 73 71 71 67 64 60 52 47 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 38 50 59 59 59 59 57 57 53 50 46 38 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT