* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052024 08/13/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 47 53 62 76 86 92 93 90 86 86 85 88 83 76 65 V (KT) LAND 35 40 47 53 62 76 86 92 93 90 86 86 85 88 83 76 65 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 44 49 61 72 80 83 83 83 84 86 87 88 81 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 11 8 9 12 12 16 15 8 10 12 15 15 30 47 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 -2 -6 -3 -2 7 4 10 9 -1 3 3 8 1 -4 SHEAR DIR 339 351 12 12 326 337 307 333 312 325 286 264 264 240 230 231 245 SST (C) 29.0 29.4 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.6 28.4 27.8 27.9 28.7 27.2 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 160 165 161 161 158 154 154 152 152 145 141 133 136 149 128 86 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -51.3 -51.7 -51.0 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -50.6 -50.5 -50.0 -49.4 -49.4 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.4 0.8 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 7 7 7 6 7 7 5 3 1 700-500 MB RH 68 68 68 66 65 63 64 65 58 54 53 56 58 60 59 55 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 18 20 20 22 26 28 30 32 32 32 34 36 41 41 42 37 850 MB ENV VOR 49 38 37 26 21 -17 -42 7 31 37 30 40 24 30 46 85 75 200 MB DIV 105 108 101 86 81 87 56 74 62 64 5 54 28 102 74 69 25 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -12 -14 -8 2 16 33 21 15 15 8 12 37 35 6 40 LAND (KM) 105 23 79 4 24 232 409 627 879 1115 1142 1113 1047 900 676 470 256 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.8 18.6 20.6 23.0 25.1 27.2 29.1 30.8 32.2 33.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.5 62.0 63.5 64.6 65.7 67.3 68.3 68.3 67.2 66.0 64.9 64.4 64.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 14 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 8 7 8 12 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 43 53 81 77 67 63 41 35 22 19 16 16 15 21 36 14 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 14. 18. 20. 21. 22. 23. 22. 20. 18. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 17. 18. 18. 19. 21. 26. 25. 24. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 15. 11. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 18. 27. 41. 51. 57. 58. 55. 51. 51. 50. 53. 48. 41. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.1 60.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052024 ERNESTO 08/13/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 8.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.82 6.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 64.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.41 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.77 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.58 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.83 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 4.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 48.2% 30.6% 13.6% 7.7% 27.4% 29.3% 27.1% Logistic: 11.9% 50.4% 31.5% 14.5% 9.3% 19.0% 16.3% 11.8% Bayesian: 4.4% 32.6% 17.4% 4.7% 1.5% 9.6% 14.4% 1.0% Consensus: 7.4% 43.7% 26.5% 11.0% 6.2% 18.7% 20.0% 13.3% DTOPS: 3.0% 30.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 19.0% 9.0% 39.0% SDCON: 5.2% 36.8% 17.2% 7.5% 4.1% 18.8% 14.5% 26.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052024 ERNESTO 08/13/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052024 ERNESTO 08/13/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 5( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 13( 13) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 40 47 53 62 76 86 92 93 90 86 86 85 88 83 76 65 18HR AGO 35 34 41 47 56 70 80 86 87 84 80 80 79 82 77 70 59 12HR AGO 35 32 31 37 46 60 70 76 77 74 70 70 69 72 67 60 49 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 34 48 58 64 65 62 58 58 57 60 55 48 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT