* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052024 08/13/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 42 50 59 68 84 93 98 98 93 88 86 83 79 80 76 70 V (KT) LAND 35 42 50 59 68 84 93 98 98 93 88 86 83 79 80 76 70 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 46 52 59 74 88 95 96 93 90 90 87 84 85 84 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 1 5 5 10 7 16 12 23 9 18 7 17 12 17 17 20 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 0 0 -1 -7 -2 -3 8 5 13 4 5 -3 1 4 8 SHEAR DIR 200 280 10 28 40 326 338 325 331 302 208 287 280 286 272 259 248 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.0 27.7 28.4 28.4 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 162 165 163 160 154 155 154 154 148 143 136 133 143 143 100 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -51.6 -51.1 -51.1 -50.5 -50.2 -50.2 -50.0 -49.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 2 700-500 MB RH 65 67 68 68 66 63 63 65 63 53 46 47 50 59 61 65 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 18 20 21 26 27 29 31 31 30 32 34 34 38 38 37 850 MB ENV VOR 54 54 48 42 43 7 -24 -31 34 42 45 35 28 11 -9 -9 12 200 MB DIV 101 118 122 109 110 71 59 51 70 63 53 -7 -10 32 70 95 93 700-850 TADV -11 -9 -5 -15 -12 -5 16 32 15 19 10 12 2 4 10 53 44 LAND (KM) 283 117 32 82 34 124 323 489 744 993 1138 1128 1068 932 754 580 352 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.9 17.4 19.6 21.9 23.7 26.2 28.4 30.2 31.7 33.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.6 60.4 62.2 63.4 64.7 66.7 67.7 68.1 68.0 67.0 65.4 64.5 64.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 17 15 13 14 13 11 11 12 12 10 7 9 12 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 47 44 53 79 90 68 53 43 29 21 17 15 16 19 26 19 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 53.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 22. 20. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 8. 10. 14. 17. 17. 16. 18. 19. 18. 21. 19. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 19. 19. 15. 9. 3. -2. -6. -10. -12. -12. -14. -14. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 24. 33. 49. 58. 63. 63. 58. 53. 51. 48. 44. 45. 41. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.9 58.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052024 ERNESTO 08/13/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 11.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.82 6.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.40 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.76 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.65 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.84 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 42% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 53.3% 35.5% 17.4% 7.6% 35.2% 41.4% 41.5% Logistic: 10.6% 50.5% 29.2% 9.8% 4.5% 12.0% 13.1% 13.3% Bayesian: 9.9% 51.1% 24.1% 5.3% 3.7% 22.7% 17.8% 5.2% Consensus: 9.0% 51.6% 29.6% 10.8% 5.3% 23.3% 24.1% 20.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 18.0% 5.0% 5.0% 2.0% 8.0% 18.0% 36.0% SDCON: 6.5% 34.8% 17.3% 7.9% 3.6% 15.6% 21.0% 28.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052024 ERNESTO 08/13/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052024 ERNESTO 08/13/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 9( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 42 50 59 68 84 93 98 98 93 88 86 83 79 80 76 70 18HR AGO 35 34 42 51 60 76 85 90 90 85 80 78 75 71 72 68 62 12HR AGO 35 32 31 40 49 65 74 79 79 74 69 67 64 60 61 57 51 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 34 50 59 64 64 59 54 52 49 45 46 42 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT