* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052024 08/12/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 47 55 62 74 83 88 89 87 88 85 85 82 81 78 76 V (KT) LAND 35 41 47 55 62 74 83 88 89 87 88 85 85 82 81 78 76 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 45 50 55 67 78 85 88 89 89 89 86 82 81 81 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 3 3 4 8 15 17 14 18 11 18 23 25 18 17 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 0 0 -4 -2 0 7 5 6 4 -1 -3 0 4 7 SHEAR DIR 88 181 221 274 353 301 329 309 303 300 293 271 290 279 269 255 245 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 28.5 27.7 28.0 28.7 28.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 153 158 159 161 159 154 154 152 154 145 133 136 146 151 124 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -51.0 -50.4 -50.3 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.7 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 60 60 62 63 64 63 62 63 71 65 56 49 52 53 63 65 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 16 17 19 21 22 25 26 28 29 33 34 36 37 39 850 MB ENV VOR 46 51 46 36 27 11 -17 -48 -7 18 47 31 32 15 31 11 23 200 MB DIV 43 85 92 96 92 75 82 70 102 105 104 39 62 24 84 68 111 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -6 -8 -12 -8 2 10 32 26 19 14 23 17 7 30 50 LAND (KM) 446 312 124 22 49 86 232 379 620 831 1058 1070 1012 887 797 635 450 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.7 19.1 20.6 22.5 25.0 27.1 29.0 31.2 33.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.6 58.6 60.5 62.0 63.4 65.4 67.0 67.8 68.2 67.8 66.8 65.5 64.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 22 19 17 14 12 11 10 11 11 10 11 13 12 7 7 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 48 51 52 54 74 64 67 48 35 24 22 16 15 23 35 40 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 24 CX,CY: -22/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 23. 25. 25. 25. 23. 21. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 16. 16. 20. 20. 22. 21. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 11. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 20. 27. 39. 48. 53. 54. 52. 53. 50. 50. 47. 46. 43. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.1 56.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052024 FIVE 08/12/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 10.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.85 6.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.36 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.51 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.80 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.8 109.2 to 0.0 0.97 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 4.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 46% is 8.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 45.5% 29.6% 10.2% 7.2% 29.1% 39.8% 45.8% Logistic: 14.4% 55.3% 46.3% 16.6% 5.1% 10.3% 7.1% 8.8% Bayesian: 4.3% 11.8% 11.1% 1.2% 1.4% 6.0% 43.6% 3.2% Consensus: 8.2% 37.5% 29.0% 9.3% 4.6% 15.1% 30.2% 19.2% DTOPS: 5.0% 15.0% 6.0% 5.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 13.0% SDCON: 6.6% 26.2% 17.5% 7.1% 3.3% 9.5% 18.1% 16.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052024 FIVE 08/12/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052024 FIVE 08/12/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 5( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 41 47 55 62 74 83 88 89 87 88 85 85 82 81 78 76 18HR AGO 35 34 40 48 55 67 76 81 82 80 81 78 78 75 74 71 69 12HR AGO 35 32 31 39 46 58 67 72 73 71 72 69 69 66 65 62 60 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 32 44 53 58 59 57 58 55 55 52 51 48 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT