* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052024 08/12/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 41 54 67 74 77 79 80 85 89 89 87 89 87 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 41 54 64 71 74 76 77 82 86 86 84 86 84 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 30 33 40 47 54 60 64 68 74 79 81 79 79 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 5 2 4 6 10 6 16 9 17 7 19 13 14 18 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -3 -3 -1 -1 -3 1 3 3 3 8 4 13 7 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 34 64 103 31 360 59 326 14 338 298 315 237 303 270 279 224 228 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.3 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.3 28.0 28.2 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 159 156 154 162 163 162 156 153 155 154 152 145 139 136 141 136 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.5 -52.0 -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 -50.9 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 8 9 9 10 9 8 7 6 6 7 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 63 64 64 66 66 64 63 61 62 66 58 53 46 36 38 45 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 12 13 14 17 19 18 18 18 19 21 25 26 27 30 31 850 MB ENV VOR 59 59 64 56 52 46 24 1 -33 3 18 62 70 71 57 29 -6 200 MB DIV 38 52 76 85 85 98 80 79 78 88 71 63 29 24 20 19 57 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -9 -6 -7 -10 -6 2 16 20 19 25 19 7 10 7 17 LAND (KM) 548 364 239 93 55 45 36 198 319 512 776 1027 1099 1061 1021 821 539 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.2 17.3 18.8 20.3 22.1 24.0 26.3 28.5 30.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.6 56.8 58.9 60.5 62.1 64.7 66.6 67.5 68.3 68.3 67.6 66.6 65.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 22 21 18 16 15 12 10 9 10 11 12 12 10 6 9 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 77 61 44 40 50 92 74 58 45 44 27 20 16 17 19 26 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 23 CX,CY: -22/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. 37. 35. 34. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 8. 6. 6. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 6. 6. 5. 6. 9. 13. 13. 13. 16. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 16. 29. 42. 49. 52. 54. 55. 60. 64. 64. 62. 64. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.7 54.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052024 FIVE 08/12/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.83 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.35 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.44 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.91 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.94 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 17.1% 10.8% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 19.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 17.7% 8.4% 2.2% 1.0% 3.9% 5.7% 7.8% Bayesian: 0.9% 6.8% 1.7% 0.2% 0.2% 1.8% 8.8% 4.4% Consensus: 2.0% 13.9% 7.0% 3.2% 0.4% 1.9% 11.2% 4.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% SDCON: 1.5% 8.9% 4.5% 2.1% .2% 1.4% 6.1% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052024 FIVE 08/12/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052024 FIVE 08/12/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 31 35 41 54 64 71 74 76 77 82 86 86 84 86 84 18HR AGO 25 24 28 32 38 51 61 68 71 73 74 79 83 83 81 83 81 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 31 44 54 61 64 66 67 72 76 76 74 76 74 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 21 34 44 51 54 56 57 62 66 66 64 66 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT