* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052024 08/12/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 40 54 64 74 77 77 78 80 81 80 74 76 78 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 40 54 64 74 77 77 78 80 81 80 74 76 78 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 32 39 49 58 64 68 70 73 75 73 68 65 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 9 5 4 6 2 14 9 10 13 17 33 29 27 18 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -2 -3 -2 -2 0 0 7 2 -3 0 -1 0 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 57 39 53 75 34 38 242 360 324 335 279 283 277 299 295 290 271 SST (C) 28.5 28.8 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.4 28.3 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 153 158 161 159 163 159 155 155 152 152 152 148 142 142 141 136 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 66 65 66 66 68 67 63 63 62 66 67 63 56 52 47 46 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 11 12 15 16 19 17 16 16 18 20 22 20 24 26 850 MB ENV VOR 59 53 54 57 55 30 19 -5 -34 -10 17 52 17 35 6 -16 -54 200 MB DIV 32 50 57 78 94 113 87 85 75 107 87 27 18 23 -23 30 33 700-850 TADV -11 -8 -9 -10 -8 -10 -6 5 6 28 26 18 17 20 11 18 28 LAND (KM) 874 637 430 314 191 8 24 106 301 476 704 944 1185 1167 1119 956 763 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.8 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.7 18.1 19.4 21.3 23.4 25.5 27.5 29.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.4 53.8 56.1 57.8 59.5 62.3 64.8 66.1 67.2 67.7 67.3 66.4 65.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 23 23 20 17 15 14 12 10 11 11 10 11 10 9 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 64 66 69 54 47 53 65 62 59 37 26 21 17 14 18 26 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 19. 24. 28. 31. 34. 36. 38. 37. 36. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 4. 0. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 8. 7. 5. 4. 5. 8. 9. 6. 9. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 15. 29. 39. 49. 53. 52. 53. 55. 56. 55. 49. 51. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.2 51.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052024 FIVE 08/12/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.80 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.39 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.42 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.90 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.8 109.2 to 0.0 0.98 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 31.6% 15.3% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 24.3% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 21.8% 10.5% 2.5% 1.4% 5.5% 5.9% 9.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 11.0% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 1.5% 19.7% 9.4% Consensus: 2.6% 21.5% 9.2% 3.9% 0.5% 2.3% 16.6% 6.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% SDCON: 1.8% 12.2% 5.1% 2.4% .2% 1.6% 8.8% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052024 FIVE 08/12/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052024 FIVE 08/12/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 35 40 54 64 74 77 77 78 80 81 80 74 76 78 18HR AGO 25 24 27 32 37 51 61 71 74 74 75 77 78 77 71 73 75 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 31 45 55 65 68 68 69 71 72 71 65 67 69 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 34 44 54 57 57 58 60 61 60 54 56 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT