* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052024 08/12/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 30 34 39 52 65 74 83 86 93 95 99 99 95 92 90 V (KT) LAND 25 26 30 34 39 52 64 73 82 85 92 94 98 98 94 91 89 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 32 39 48 58 68 76 82 86 88 89 86 83 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 9 9 5 5 3 10 5 14 9 21 9 16 11 23 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 0 -1 1 -5 3 1 4 -2 2 7 17 1 0 SHEAR DIR 64 55 38 41 57 29 57 323 20 321 266 297 303 313 269 307 293 SST (C) 28.2 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 148 151 157 161 161 160 157 157 154 150 152 150 142 142 139 141 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.1 1.6 1.0 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 5 5 700-500 MB RH 68 65 64 65 64 65 63 62 61 63 72 68 59 50 47 51 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 15 18 20 22 23 26 28 31 34 33 34 34 850 MB ENV VOR 61 58 55 54 60 46 21 4 -15 -34 19 34 90 85 55 15 -19 200 MB DIV 24 47 56 52 63 95 113 78 69 89 116 107 79 62 12 18 -3 700-850 TADV -9 -12 -10 -9 -12 -11 -18 -6 0 19 25 18 25 14 11 28 13 LAND (KM) 1015 875 654 471 332 97 64 72 254 417 639 863 1067 1136 1054 864 670 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.4 17.7 19.0 20.8 22.8 24.9 26.9 28.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.2 51.4 53.6 55.6 57.6 61.0 63.6 65.5 67.0 67.6 67.4 66.9 66.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 21 22 21 20 18 15 13 11 11 11 10 10 11 14 14 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 55 65 64 75 55 48 72 60 64 42 27 23 19 14 20 23 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 19. 24. 29. 32. 35. 37. 39. 38. 37. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 13. 14. 19. 20. 24. 25. 23. 22. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 9. 14. 27. 40. 49. 58. 61. 68. 70. 74. 74. 70. 67. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 49.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052024 FIVE 08/12/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.76 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.40 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.36 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.86 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.97 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 29.0% 14.4% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 14.3% 7.5% 1.8% 0.8% 4.1% 3.5% 4.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 6.3% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 1.7% 4.5% 3.5% Consensus: 2.5% 16.5% 8.0% 3.7% 0.3% 1.9% 9.2% 2.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% SDCON: 1.7% 10.7% 5.0% 2.3% .1% 1.4% 5.1% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052024 FIVE 08/12/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052024 FIVE 08/12/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 30 34 39 52 64 73 82 85 92 94 98 98 94 91 89 18HR AGO 25 24 28 32 37 50 62 71 80 83 90 92 96 96 92 89 87 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 30 43 55 64 73 76 83 85 89 89 85 82 80 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 33 45 54 63 66 73 75 79 79 75 72 70 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT