* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 07/03/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 119 114 108 102 96 89 83 81 79 85 88 91 89 83 77 73 V (KT) LAND 125 119 114 108 102 96 68 49 46 45 50 53 35 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 125 119 113 106 101 92 68 48 52 57 64 71 44 32 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 21 20 24 22 13 11 12 8 10 5 9 6 14 12 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 2 1 0 -1 -1 6 0 4 -2 -1 4 1 -3 1 -4 SHEAR DIR 291 298 258 267 275 238 241 208 208 195 224 226 283 247 243 197 188 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.4 29.1 29.0 29.2 28.7 29.7 29.0 29.2 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.5 30.8 31.1 31.5 POT. INT. (KT) 163 159 161 156 154 157 148 165 152 154 161 165 168 168 168 169 169 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -50.9 -51.4 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -50.6 -50.9 -50.3 -50.2 -49.9 -50.2 -49.9 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 10 9 10 8 10 8 12 9 13 10 12 8 10 6 700-500 MB RH 60 61 60 60 61 68 67 66 63 63 64 59 57 56 57 58 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 19 18 18 20 18 17 17 17 20 20 22 20 17 12 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 45 41 31 12 19 -11 -2 0 2 20 22 44 40 55 71 44 200 MB DIV 60 54 58 23 6 9 18 0 14 38 8 35 34 66 26 33 27 700-850 TADV 18 15 7 0 -3 6 0 6 0 7 -2 1 -6 -6 -5 -6 -2 LAND (KM) 157 49 68 227 348 197 -71 46 303 274 148 16 -134 -177 -174 -202 -276 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.1 18.4 19.1 19.8 20.6 21.7 22.6 23.4 24.4 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.3 77.0 78.8 80.5 82.2 85.6 88.4 90.9 93.2 94.9 96.3 97.5 98.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 16 16 15 13 12 11 8 7 8 6 3 3 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 90 97 85 41 48 88 17 42 28 28 43 32 5 5 6 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 2. 1. -2. -9. -18. -26. -33. -38. -40. -43. -47. -51. -53. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -6. -12. -18. -22. -24. -22. -18. -13. -8. -3. 0. 4. 8. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -3. -6. -7. -7. -5. -6. -4. -7. -12. -17. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -17. -23. -29. -36. -42. -44. -45. -40. -37. -34. -36. -42. -48. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 16.8 75.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 07/03/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.35 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 72.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.47 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 753.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.15 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.32 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.06 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 8.1% 6.2% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 1.4% 0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 1.2% 0.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 3.3% 2.3% 2.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.6% 1.6% 1.1% 1.0% .1% .2% .1% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 07/03/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 07/03/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 30( 57) 24( 67) 19( 73) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 7 18( 24) 28( 45) 23( 58) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 119 114 108 102 96 68 49 46 45 50 53 35 29 28 27 27 18HR AGO 125 124 119 113 107 101 73 54 51 50 55 58 40 34 33 32 32 12HR AGO 125 122 121 115 109 103 75 56 53 52 57 60 42 36 35 34 34 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 109 103 75 56 53 52 57 60 42 36 35 34 34 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 100 72 53 50 49 54 57 39 33 32 31 31 IN 6HR 125 119 110 104 101 99 71 52 49 48 53 56 38 32 31 30 30 IN 12HR 125 119 114 105 99 95 67 48 45 44 49 52 34 28 27 26 26