* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 07/03/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 119 117 115 110 104 100 95 89 92 94 97 92 92 85 81 74 V (KT) LAND 125 119 117 115 110 104 100 56 49 51 54 56 43 33 29 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 125 118 113 108 103 97 94 55 52 59 66 73 63 39 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 20 13 14 20 9 8 7 3 2 8 5 7 3 15 16 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 7 6 1 0 0 2 2 8 -2 0 1 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 273 292 295 249 259 266 224 205 243 167 292 346 299 233 250 193 189 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.3 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.6 29.7 30.5 30.8 31.0 31.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 158 163 159 162 158 156 152 151 153 161 162 169 168 168 167 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -50.9 -50.8 -51.2 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -50.7 -50.6 -50.4 -49.9 -49.8 -49.5 -49.6 -49.9 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.3 1.7 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 11 10 10 9 10 9 10 9 12 12 13 10 10 7 700-500 MB RH 59 61 59 61 60 67 66 67 63 67 64 62 53 53 57 62 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 20 19 19 20 20 18 21 22 23 20 21 17 13 9 850 MB ENV VOR 45 52 48 49 30 31 18 2 -4 -3 -2 5 7 34 51 50 42 200 MB DIV 54 71 73 55 14 35 -11 30 6 57 5 35 0 39 61 41 46 700-850 TADV 16 21 11 8 0 2 9 8 1 5 0 -6 4 2 -11 2 -5 LAND (KM) 197 159 44 64 216 312 69 -113 135 359 240 91 -38 -109 -154 -181 -203 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.8 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.6 19.3 20.2 21.1 21.9 22.8 24.0 25.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.5 75.2 76.9 78.6 80.4 83.8 86.8 89.4 91.7 93.7 95.4 96.8 97.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 17 17 15 14 12 11 9 9 8 7 5 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 53 48 73 83 44 71 39 5 23 28 32 39 30 6 6 6 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -8. -17. -25. -33. -38. -40. -44. -47. -51. -53. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -11. -15. -18. -15. -10. -5. 0. 4. 7. 9. 13. 15. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -1. -1. -0. -6. -6. -11. -16. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -8. -10. -15. -21. -25. -30. -36. -33. -31. -28. -33. -33. -40. -44. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 16.3 73.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 07/03/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.42 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.39 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 780.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.12 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.38 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.05 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 7.7% 5.7% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 3.1% 2.1% 1.8% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.6% 1.5% 1.0% .9% .1% .1% .1% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 07/03/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 07/03/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 32( 58) 29( 70) 26( 78) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 27 31( 50) 32( 66) 41( 80) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 119 117 115 110 104 100 56 49 51 54 56 43 33 29 27 27 18HR AGO 125 124 122 120 115 109 105 61 54 56 59 61 48 38 34 32 32 12HR AGO 125 122 121 119 114 108 104 60 53 55 58 60 47 37 33 31 31 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 110 104 100 56 49 51 54 56 43 33 29 27 27 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 100 96 52 45 47 50 52 39 29 25 23 23 IN 6HR 125 119 110 104 101 98 94 50 43 45 48 50 37 27 23 21 21 IN 12HR 125 119 117 108 102 98 94 50 43 45 48 50 37 27 23 21 21