* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 07/03/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 124 119 117 114 105 100 92 87 85 86 90 87 82 78 75 67 V (KT) LAND 130 124 119 117 114 105 100 67 53 51 53 56 45 33 29 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 130 121 114 108 104 98 93 66 52 56 61 66 57 37 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 19 12 11 19 10 11 13 8 9 4 7 6 20 19 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 8 9 1 2 -1 5 1 3 -5 0 8 4 0 2 SHEAR DIR 287 281 281 281 246 272 222 213 198 197 198 211 239 268 230 247 227 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.4 28.4 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.7 29.6 30.6 31.3 31.2 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 158 159 163 162 161 144 151 152 153 163 161 170 170 170 170 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -50.9 -50.8 -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -50.6 -50.7 -50.1 -50.3 -49.8 -50.5 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.6 2.0 1.5 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 11 8 11 9 13 11 13 7 8 700-500 MB RH 60 59 59 60 61 60 65 63 64 62 65 65 60 58 59 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 19 19 19 20 19 19 19 19 20 19 15 14 12 5 850 MB ENV VOR 40 41 42 45 39 10 30 -2 6 2 15 2 15 20 13 1 -11 200 MB DIV 74 49 45 55 44 -7 28 3 15 34 15 4 16 36 59 0 36 700-850 TADV 6 14 21 14 11 -3 3 0 9 -2 7 0 0 -13 -6 -3 2 LAND (KM) 176 158 125 14 49 305 203 -102 81 338 230 73 -34 -87 -105 -170 -278 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.1 18.8 19.3 20.1 21.2 22.1 22.8 23.8 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.8 73.5 75.3 77.0 78.8 82.2 85.5 88.6 91.1 93.4 95.5 97.0 97.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 17 17 17 16 16 14 12 11 9 8 7 6 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 61 49 50 76 73 59 68 4 23 29 33 40 29 8 7 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 145 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -10. -20. -29. -37. -43. -45. -49. -53. -57. -60. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -9. -11. -13. -19. -17. -13. -10. -5. -1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -8. -8. -10. -14. -16. -19. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -13. -16. -25. -30. -38. -43. -45. -44. -40. -43. -48. -52. -55. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 16.1 71.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 07/03/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 1.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.45 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.40 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 807.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.09 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.38 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 5.6% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 2.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .7% 1.0% .7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 07/03/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 07/03/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 33( 62) 30( 73) 27( 80) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 22 7( 27) 36( 54) 29( 67) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 124 119 117 114 105 100 67 53 51 53 56 45 33 29 27 27 18HR AGO 130 129 124 122 119 110 105 72 58 56 58 61 50 38 34 32 32 12HR AGO 130 127 126 124 121 112 107 74 60 58 60 63 52 40 36 34 34 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 117 108 103 70 56 54 56 59 48 36 32 30 30 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 102 97 64 50 48 50 53 42 30 26 24 24 IN 6HR 130 124 115 109 106 101 96 63 49 47 49 52 41 29 25 23 23 IN 12HR 130 124 119 110 104 100 95 62 48 46 48 51 40 28 24 22 22