* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 07/02/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 145 139 132 124 116 106 92 88 77 69 65 64 64 65 62 62 63 V (KT) LAND 145 139 132 124 116 106 92 88 62 46 42 41 41 42 39 39 31 V (KT) LGEM 145 138 128 118 110 99 92 89 69 49 50 52 54 58 62 72 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 15 19 17 14 20 12 14 18 12 18 10 8 2 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 6 8 7 0 5 -2 3 -1 5 -4 5 0 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 290 295 270 264 272 241 269 213 225 208 197 183 187 204 63 243 308 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.5 29.4 28.6 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.7 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 157 156 158 163 163 160 147 156 154 151 158 159 157 162 170 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.2 -51.7 -51.3 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -51.1 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 7 10 8 11 8 13 11 16 11 700-500 MB RH 64 63 61 58 58 61 61 67 65 67 66 68 66 60 55 55 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 19 17 16 15 14 16 14 13 12 11 10 8 5 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 37 43 38 41 39 14 27 -12 -7 -18 -10 -11 8 17 53 27 200 MB DIV 53 67 59 46 45 48 -7 26 7 26 15 52 8 46 19 39 23 700-850 TADV 10 14 16 22 22 14 -7 0 0 6 0 7 1 -1 0 -7 -10 LAND (KM) 335 280 166 157 125 45 327 217 -71 47 297 270 137 90 98 20 -88 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.1 18.0 18.6 19.1 19.8 20.8 21.8 22.7 23.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.9 69.8 71.8 73.6 75.4 78.7 82.2 85.4 88.4 90.9 93.1 95.0 96.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 19 18 17 17 16 15 13 12 11 8 5 3 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 67 99 58 49 50 77 55 69 17 33 31 28 43 38 32 30 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 20 CX,CY: -17/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -16. -27. -39. -49. -56. -60. -64. -69. -73. -76. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -11. -16. -21. -23. -26. -21. -16. -12. -7. -4. 1. 6. 12. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -9. -14. -17. -20. -22. -23. -25. -30. -31. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -21. -29. -39. -53. -57. -68. -76. -80. -81. -81. -80. -83. -83. -82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 145. LAT, LON: 15.0 67.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 07/02/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 64.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 145.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 885.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.01 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.38 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .8% .3% .1% .1% .1% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 07/02/24 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 07/02/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 66 45( 81) 31( 87) 27( 91) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 49 49( 74) 14( 78) 24( 83) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 145 139 132 124 116 106 92 88 62 46 42 41 41 42 39 39 31 18HR AGO 145 144 137 129 121 111 97 93 67 51 47 46 46 47 44 44 36 12HR AGO 145 142 141 133 125 115 101 97 71 55 51 50 50 51 48 48 40 6HR AGO 145 139 136 135 127 117 103 99 73 57 53 52 52 53 50 50 42 NOW 145 136 130 127 126 116 102 98 72 56 52 51 51 52 49 49 41 IN 6HR 145 139 130 124 121 114 100 96 70 54 50 49 49 50 47 47 39 IN 12HR 145 139 132 123 117 113 99 95 69 53 49 48 48 49 46 46 38