* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 07/02/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 145 142 135 127 118 108 96 91 85 76 70 69 69 75 75 77 69 V (KT) LAND 145 142 135 127 118 108 96 91 85 49 45 44 44 49 50 38 30 V (KT) LGEM 145 141 132 122 113 101 95 91 88 52 51 53 56 60 68 50 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 20 18 15 16 11 22 8 14 14 15 13 9 2 6 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 3 4 11 0 3 0 -2 0 -1 3 0 3 -2 8 SHEAR DIR 287 294 299 273 266 280 265 245 222 214 227 188 221 101 72 64 294 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.6 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.7 29.7 29.3 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 158 158 158 163 161 157 157 164 149 151 155 161 162 155 164 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 11 9 9 8 10 9 10 10 12 11 14 13 700-500 MB RH 61 65 65 61 59 62 63 67 67 68 65 66 66 64 58 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 19 16 16 14 16 16 14 13 13 12 12 11 12 6 850 MB ENV VOR 31 34 40 44 39 49 27 26 12 -3 0 -17 -19 0 20 58 64 200 MB DIV 42 45 62 73 52 81 20 32 -9 13 20 22 20 9 58 22 28 700-850 TADV 7 10 18 18 19 18 1 3 1 1 0 7 2 1 -6 0 -23 LAND (KM) 397 347 312 188 189 44 216 300 78 -90 198 319 230 118 32 -56 -143 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.0 16.4 17.4 18.1 18.5 19.0 20.0 21.2 22.2 22.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.9 67.7 69.5 71.5 73.4 76.9 80.4 83.9 86.8 89.6 92.3 94.3 95.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 19 19 18 17 17 15 14 14 12 9 6 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 44 58 118 68 58 77 46 65 39 5 27 26 35 43 34 26 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -15. -27. -38. -48. -55. -58. -63. -68. -72. -74. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -12. -16. -20. -23. -25. -20. -15. -11. -7. -4. 1. 7. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. -0. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -7. -8. -12. -15. -16. -18. -18. -19. -17. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -10. -18. -27. -37. -49. -54. -60. -69. -75. -76. -76. -70. -70. -68. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 145. LAT, LON: 14.2 65.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 07/02/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 69.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.45 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 145.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 832.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.06 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.39 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.2% 3.9% 1.8% 1.6% 1.7% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.6% 4.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 2.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.9% 1.4% .3% .2% .3% .1% .1% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 07/02/24 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 07/02/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 66 48( 82) 32( 88) 28( 91) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 58 84( 93) 22( 95) 19( 96) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 145 142 135 127 118 108 96 91 85 49 45 44 44 49 50 38 30 18HR AGO 145 144 137 129 120 110 98 93 87 51 47 46 46 51 52 40 32 12HR AGO 145 142 141 133 124 114 102 97 91 55 51 50 50 55 56 44 36 6HR AGO 145 139 136 135 126 116 104 99 93 57 53 52 52 57 58 46 38 NOW 145 136 130 127 126 116 104 99 93 57 53 52 52 57 58 46 38 IN 6HR 145 142 133 127 124 120 108 103 97 61 57 56 56 61 62 50 42 IN 12HR 145 142 135 126 120 116 104 99 93 57 53 52 52 57 58 46 38