* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 07/02/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 134 129 122 114 101 93 84 82 74 69 65 66 68 69 68 67 V (KT) LAND 135 134 129 122 114 101 93 84 82 62 46 42 43 44 45 37 30 V (KT) LGEM 135 135 129 121 114 101 93 87 83 67 47 49 51 54 60 54 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 17 21 17 17 17 17 17 11 8 13 13 9 5 5 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 3 3 10 6 0 5 -1 5 -4 2 -4 4 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 300 291 294 298 266 278 244 275 197 227 197 200 191 206 192 167 209 SST (C) 28.7 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.6 29.3 29.2 28.9 29.3 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.7 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 155 155 159 160 158 165 159 157 152 158 148 150 156 163 154 156 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.2 -51.8 -51.1 -51.8 -51.3 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -51.3 -51.7 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 11 10 10 8 9 7 10 7 10 7 13 10 14 700-500 MB RH 60 63 66 66 62 61 65 67 73 70 73 71 71 71 66 63 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 22 20 18 17 16 14 17 14 13 11 10 8 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 27 29 35 40 45 53 58 27 47 0 -3 -15 -4 7 23 33 36 200 MB DIV 30 34 38 71 56 47 57 9 49 -12 21 26 47 37 47 28 50 700-850 TADV -1 4 7 12 17 23 16 1 6 -3 7 0 6 0 1 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 295 388 350 325 194 187 91 334 259 -22 47 237 284 194 77 -31 -99 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 14.1 14.8 15.4 15.9 16.6 17.5 18.1 18.4 19.0 19.9 20.7 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.0 65.8 67.5 69.5 71.5 75.1 78.7 82.2 85.2 88.2 91.1 93.2 94.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 19 20 19 18 17 16 14 14 12 8 6 8 7 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 29 43 52 118 73 50 96 45 60 27 36 27 25 27 38 25 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -11. -21. -30. -38. -42. -46. -50. -54. -58. -59. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -9. -14. -18. -23. -23. -21. -15. -10. -6. -3. 1. 6. 10. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -10. -15. -18. -22. -23. -26. -27. -27. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -6. -13. -21. -33. -42. -51. -53. -61. -66. -70. -69. -67. -66. -67. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 13.4 64.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 07/02/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.41 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.03 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 749.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.15 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.34 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.3% 8.7% 4.5% 3.3% 3.0% 1.8% 1.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 5.5% 12.5% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.7% 7.1% 2.3% 1.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 8.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 9.3% 3.5% 1.6% .5% .5% .3% .2% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 07/02/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 07/02/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 48 44( 71) 30( 80) 23( 84) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 75 81( 95) 72( 99) 39( 99) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 135 134 129 122 114 101 93 84 82 62 46 42 43 44 45 37 30 18HR AGO 135 134 129 122 114 101 93 84 82 62 46 42 43 44 45 37 30 12HR AGO 135 132 131 124 116 103 95 86 84 64 48 44 45 46 47 39 32 6HR AGO 135 129 126 125 117 104 96 87 85 65 49 45 46 47 48 40 33 NOW 135 126 120 117 116 103 95 86 84 64 48 44 45 46 47 39 32 IN 6HR 135 134 125 119 116 110 102 93 91 71 55 51 52 53 54 46 39 IN 12HR 135 134 129 120 114 110 102 93 91 71 55 51 52 53 54 46 39